世界石油

（彭博社）安联贸易公司经济研究主管安娜·博塔表示，中东战争可能导致油价飙升至每桶 140 美元，并将世界推向经济衰退的边缘。

资料来源：世界石油

这位驻巴黎分析师在彭博电视上接受克里蒂·古普塔采访时表示，出现这种结果的可能性为 20%，以色列和哈马斯之间的敌对行动“被美国和欧盟认定为恐怖组织”，并演变成广泛的地区冲突这会导致原油供应中断。

她周五表示，“油价上涨”是直接影响，并详细说明了这种情况将如何发展。“预计油价将从每桶 90 美元上涨到最高时的 140 美元，明年平均价格甚至会上涨到 120 美元。”

这些预测表明，人员伤亡惨重，对于处理其后果的政策制定者来说也是一场噩梦。上周参加国际货币基金组织会议的官员们也讨论了石油的潜在影响，欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德上周在向各国财长通报情况时强调了这一风险。

“显然，在目前的能源价格水平上，我们知道央行在降息之前会更多地采取观望模式，”博塔说，他描述了通胀加快和经济增长放缓的结果。“这可能会让我们陷入衰退情景，而这是一些人在基准情景中无论如何都会预料到的。”

博塔表示，全球经济整体增长将放缓至 2%，接近收缩的阈值。与此同时，金融市场影响的威胁不应被忽视。

“主权风险增加了，这是事实，因为实际利率显然远远高于经济增长，”博塔观察到。

“我们都清楚地记得，经济学家担心的一个问题是 2012 年欧洲主权危机的重演”，而且不仅是在欧洲，因为即使是美国也很容易受到利息支付增加的影响， “她说。“实际上，作为政府，每个人在调整公共财政方面都有明确的计划。”

World Oil

(Bloomberg) – War in the Middle East could cause the oil price to surge to $140 a bbl and bring the world to the brink of a recession, according to Ana Boata, head of economic research at Allianz Trade.

Source: World Oil

Speaking to Kriti Gupta on Bloomberg Television, the Paris-based analyst placed a 20% probability of such an outcome transpiring, with hostilities between Israel and Hamas — designated a terrorist group by the U.S. and the EU — turning into a broad regional conflict that shuts down crude oil supplies.

“Higher oil prices — that’s the direct impact,” she said Friday, detailing how such a scenario would unfold. “We can expect oil prices to go up from $90 per bbl to $140 at a peak, and even $120 on average next year.”

Such projections point to a horror in human cost and a nightmare for policymakers dealing with the fallout. Officials at the International Monetary Fund meetings last week also honed in on the potential oil impact, and European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde highlighted the risk in a briefing last week to finance ministers.

“Clearly at these levels of energy prices, we understand that central banks would be much more into the wait-and-see mode before they cut interest rates,” Boata said, describing an outcome of faster inflation and even weaker economic growth. “That could shift us into the recession scenario that some would have expected anyhow in the baseline scenario.”

Global growth as a whole would slow to 2% — close to the threshold that signals contraction, Boata said. Meanwhile, the threat of financial-market fallout shouldn’t be discounted.

“Sovereign risks have increased, and that’s a reality, because real interest rates are clearly much, much higher than growth,” Boata observed.

“One of the concerns of the economists, and we all remember it very well, is the remake of the 2012 sovereign crisis in Europe — and not only in Europe, because even the US is very exposed to the increase in interest payments,” she said. “Nobody actually, as governments, has clear plans in adjusting their public finances.”