康菲石油公司在阿尔伯塔省苏尔蒙特油砂项目中持有的 50% 股份是该公司投资组合中的核心资产，而其对合作伙伴 TotalEnergies 权益的优先拒绝权可能会破坏森科尔公司最近宣布的 40 亿美元交易。

自 1997 年启动以来，康菲石油公司一直在加拿大运营 Surmont 油砂项目。该公司计划于今年年底投产自 2016 年以来的第一个 Surmont 油砂项目。

全球运营高级副总裁安迪·奥里恩 (Andy O'rien) 在 5 月 4 日与投资者举行的财报电话会议上表示：“我们确实喜欢苏蒙特，因为它对我们来说是一种寿命长、资本密集度低的资产。”

康菲公司对加拿大油砂的持续开发与英国石油公司、壳牌公司、Equinor公司和德文能源公司等许多全球同行形成鲜明对比，这些公司在过去十年中因环保主义者反对这些项目而退出了该领域。

加拿大生产商 Suncor于 4 月 26 日宣布斥资 41 亿美元收购 TotalEnergies EP Canada Ltd，包括其 Surmont 资产，这家总部位于巴黎的公司正在追求自己的净零排放目标。

Suncor 同意以约 55 亿加元（41 亿美元）收购道达尔加拿大业务的所有股份，从而增加约 135,000 桶/天的净沥青产能，并将其油砂储量增加 2.1 桶。

奥林在一次会议上表示，目前，康菲石油公司在该地点钻探一个新的平台大约已完成一半，并且已经发现成本比七年前上次在苏尔蒙钻探时减少了 30%。

分析师上个月。

“尽管自 2016 年以来没有新的垫片，但这些优化使我们去年实现了创纪录的生产水平，”他说。

此外，“267 基地的供应成本仅为每桶 15 美元，将提供我们整个投资组合中供应成本最低的资源。”

近年来，康菲公司每年在维护资本上花费 2000 万至 3000 万美元。奥布莱恩在 5 月 4 日与投资者举行的第一季度财报电话会议上表示，Pad 267 的价格预算为不到 5000 万美元，这强调了 Surmont 的资本效率。

“我们的优化是通过最高四分之一的蒸汽油比率、更低的每桶成本和更低的排放强度实现产量增长，”他说。

“你可以对资产形成自己的看法，但它是我们投资组合中的核心资产，”奥林说。

本季度现金充足，生产节奏加快

康菲石油公司报告称，2023 年前三个月的运营现金流为 57 亿美元，公司向股东返还 32 亿美元。其中包括 17 亿美元的股票回购以及 15 亿美元的普通股息和可变分配。这相当于该公司运营现金的约 56%，远高于康菲公司 30% 的最低回报率，并且符合该公司今年向股东返还 110 亿美元的目标。

康菲石油公司将全年产量指导从之前的 1.76 MMboe/d 提高到 1.78 MMboe/d 至 1.80 MMboe/d。

第一季度 1.792 MMboe/d 的产量创下了公司记录，这是由“整个投资组合的可靠执行”推动的，首席财务官 Bill Bullock 表示。

他表示，Lower 48 产量再创公司新高，平均为 1,036 MMboe/d，这反映了由于新井和康菲资产的表现强于预期，产量同比增长 8%。

尽管提高了生产指导，但该公司仍维持当前的全年资本计划。

Evercore 分析师斯蒂芬·理查森 (Stephen Richardson) 表示，考虑到“股东回报、稳定的资本支出和产量增加”等因素，康菲石油公司的前景“具有罕见的灵活性”。

他在一份研究报告中表示：“分配和长周期资本支出并不相互排斥，在大宗商品价格波动时期维持两者的灵活性非常独特。” 

理查森表示，收购苏尔蒙特项目剩余一半的潜在收购极具吸引力，康菲石油公司有望利用这种机会。

“约 34 亿美元的价格标签并不是一个艰难的提升。这种潜力是如此有吸引力，以至于对[优先购买权]不采取行动需要更充分的解释，”他说。“退一步来说，这有点像金发姑娘的前景。”

ConocoPhillips’ 50% stake in the Surmont project in Alberta’s oil sands is a core asset in the company’s portfolio — and its first right of refusal on partner TotalEnergies’ interest could scuttle Suncor’s recently announced $4 billion deal.

Conoco has operated the Surmont oil sands project in Canada since its launch in 1997. By the end of this year, the firm intends to bring online its first Surmont pad since 2016.

“We do like Surmont as the nice sort of long life, low capital intensity asset for us,” Andy O’Brien, senior vice president of global operations, said during a May 4 earnings call with investors.

Conoco’s continued development of Canada’s oil sands is a stark contrast to many of its global peers, including BP, Shell, Equinor and Devon Energy, which have exited the space during the last decade as environmentalists have crusaded against the projects.

Canadian producer Suncor announced a $4.1 billion deal on April 26 to acquire TotalEnergies EP Canada Ltd, including its Surmont assets, as the Paris-based firm chases its own net-zero targets.

Suncor agreed to acquire all shares of Total’s Canadian operations for about CA$5.5 billion (US$4.1 billion), adding some 135,000 bbl/d of net bitumen production capacity and boosting its oil sands reserves by 2.1 Bbbl.

Currently, Conoco is roughly halfway through drilling a new pad at the site and is already seeing costs that are 30% less than when it last drilled in Surmont seven years ago, O’Brien said during a meeting with

analysts last month.

“Despite no new pads since 2016, these optimizations allowed us to achieve record production levels last year,” he said.

Moreover, “With a cost of supply of just $15 a barrel, pad 267 will deliver some of the lowest cost of supply resource in our entire portfolio.”

Conoco has spent between $20 million and $30 million annually in recent years there on maintenance capital. The price on Pad 267 is budgeted at less $50 million, emphasizing Surmont’s capital efficiency, O’Brien said during a first-quarter earnings call with investors on May 4.

“Our optimization is delivering production growth with top quartile steam oil ratios, lower cost per barrel and lower emissions intensity,” he said.

“You can form your own view on the asset, but it's an asset that is a core asset in our portfolio,” O’Brien said.

Cash in the quarter, pacing production

Conoco reported cash flow from operations of $5.7 billion for the first three months of 2023, and the firm returned $3.2 billion to shareholders. That included $1.7 billion in share buybacks and$1.5 billion in ordinary dividends and variable distributions. That amounts to roughly 56% of the firm’s cash from operations – well above Conoco’s minimum of 30% return – and in line with the firm’s target of returning $11 billion to its shareholders this year.

Conoco raised its full-year production guidance to 1.78 MMboe to 1.80 MMboe/d from prior guidance of 1.76 MMboe to 1.8 MMboe/d.

First quarter production of 1.792 MMboe/d set a company record, which was driven by “solid execution across the entire portfolio,” CFO Bill Bullock said.

Lower 48 production set an additional company high, averaging 1,036 MMboe/d, which reflected 8% production growth year-over-year  due to new wells and stronger-than-expected performance across Conoco’s assets, he said.

The company is maintaining its current full-year capital plan even as it increases production guidance.

Taking all into account –shareholder returns, steady capex and increased production – analyst Stephen Richardson at Evercore said Conoco “enjoys uncommon flexibility” in its outlook.

“Distributions and long cycle capex are not mutually exclusive and the flexibility to sustain both through periods of commodity price volatility is very unique here,” he said in a research note. 

The potential acquisition of the remaining half of the Surmont project is highly attractive and the type of opportunity Conoco would be expected to capitalize on, Richardson said.

“The ~$3.4 billion price tag is not a tough lift. The potential is so attractive that non-action on the [right of first refusal] would require a more fulsome explanation,” he said. “Stepping back this is something of a Goldilocks outlook.”