为什么收购 Double Eagle 对 Ovintiv 有意义（或无意义）

奥文蒂夫公司从尤因塔盆地剥离资产所得收益可用于资助 Double Eagle 收购米德兰盆地资产的交易，但分析师表示，这笔钱也可能被用来减债。

达伦
巴比
石油和天然气投资者

投机性并购可能是一件危险的事，但分析师有时会对这些事情宽容，特别是当它们涉及到二叠纪盆地和潜在的 50 亿至 65 亿美元的交易时。

最近的媒体报道促使分析师对Ovintiv (OVV) 的潜力进行了评估，该公司最近更加专注于二叠纪盆地，并抢占了Double Eagle IV 的Midland Basin 资产。Double Eagle 有向大型上市公司出售资产的历史，其最近两次出售的总价为 92 亿美元。

8 月 21 日，彭博社报道了 Ovintiv 考虑出售其尤因塔盆地资产的消息，据匿名人士透露，该公司可能以 20 亿美元的价格出售这些资产，这很可能让幻想并购玩家的心跳加速。

该公司发言人于 8 月 28 日告诉 Hart Energy，“按照惯例，Ovintiv 不会对传闻中的收购或资产剥离活动发表评论”。Double Eagle 并未立即回应置评请求。

TD Cowen 分析师 Gabe Daoud Jr. 于 8 月 21 日写道，彭博社的文章是一份“未经证实的报道”，随后他开始热衷于分析如果剥离 Uinta 资产，对 Ovintiv 来说意味着什么。

Daoud 对此表示惊讶，因为“投资者可能将阿纳达科 [Basin Holdings] 视为 OVV 投资组合优化工作的下一个目标，但考虑到 Uinta 相对活跃的 A&D 环境以及对企业 FCF 的贡献很小（相对于阿纳达科），这无疑是合理的，”Daoud 写道。

他估计，Uinta 的出售收益既可以增加 Ovintiv 的资本回报率 (ROC)，也可以用于收购 Double Eagle。

在资本方面，20 亿美元的出售将立即达到 Ovintiv 40 亿美元的净债务目标。

他说道：“理论上，当前的 ROC 框架可以将股息后自由现金流 (FCF) 从 50% 提高到 70%，使 25 年总派息达到约 5 美元/股，比我们公布的约 4.22 美元/股模型高出 18%（基于 cal25 定价约 76 美元 [WTI]/3.46 美元 [Mcf]）。”

另一个选择是：“选择 Double Eagle (DE IV)，也许是一个激进的选择”，Daoud 说道。

Zacks Equity Research 指出，Ovintiv 一直在“战略性地重新定位自己，以专注于二叠纪盆地”。2023 年 6 月，Ovintiv 完成了一项收购三家EnCap Investments投资组合公司的交易，这三家公司以现金和股票交易的形式增加了1,050 个净 10,000 英尺井位和 65,000 净英亩土地，交易价值为 42.75 亿美元。

Zacks 分析师表示，“出售 Uinta Basin 资产将使 OVV 能够将更多资源集中在二叠纪业务上，这符合该公司通过重点投资高收益地区来提高回报的目标。”“该公司已经在 2023 年以 8.25 亿美元的价格出售其位于北达科他州的 Williston Basin 资产，证明了这种转变。”

8 月 12 日，Cowen 研究了如果 Ovintiv 收购 Double Eagle，情况会如何。路透社报道称，Double Eagle 的（试探性）收购价格将达到 65 亿美元。

Daoud 的基本交易重新调整为 50 亿美元的购买价格，假设 70-30 的债务与股权分割，这将“在几个财务指标上实现增值，但在我们看来，达成交易的可能性很低，因为我们相信 OVV 保留了足够的库存并仍然专注于实现 40 亿美元的净债务。”

“简而言之，如果 DE IV 的交易金额达到 65 亿美元，我们会感到惊讶。即使是 50 亿美元的估值，尽管具有增值性，也会将 OVV 40 亿美元的净债务目标从我们之前的 2026 年第三季度推迟到 2027 年第四季度，我们认为 OVV 不愿意这样做，”他说。

路透社的报道称，Double Eagle 的要价“可能与到 2024 年底增至 90,000 桶油当量/天的目标挂钩”，Daoud 表示。

达乌德表示，考恩公司的分析并没有假设该交易具有协同效应或任何潜在的中游价值。

“我们估计 PDP PV-10 的成本约为 36 亿美元，价格区间为 75 美元 [WTI]/3 美元 [Mcf]，这意味着相对于 [90,000] 桶油当量/天，每桶油当量的成本约为 4 万美元，”他表示。“对于库存，路透社指出净库存量约为 5.5 万英亩，但我们认为该报告可能低估了库存量（指出的 300 英亩总量）并估计剩余总库存量为 574 个（假设 80% 的工作权益，净库存量为 459 个，意味着库存寿命约为 6 年），基于 1,280 英亩 [钻井间隔单位] 和每个区块 15 口井。”

这个价格点意味着每个地点的价格为 300 万美元，“与 22 年以来二叠纪交易中每个地点 270 万美元的平均值相比，这个价格仍然略高，但肯定比 65 亿美元这个数字更合理，”他说。

根据 Cowen 和 Enverus 的数据，2024 年交易包括：

双鹰撞击

自 2022 年投入使用以来，Double Eagle IV 已在米德兰盆地积累了大量资金，EnCap Investments、 Apollo Natural Resources和Magnetar Capital等投资者承诺投资至少 17 亿美元。

在联席首席执行官 Cody Campbell 和 John Sellers 的领导下，Double Eagle 一直以高价出售。E&P Double Eagle III 是 DoublePoint Energy LLC 的子公司，于 2021 年以 64 亿美元的价格出售给Pioneer Natural Resources。Double Eagle Holdings II LLC 于 2017 年以 28 亿美元的价格出售给 Parsley Energy。

有关的

Double Eagle IV 是目前最受追捧的由 PE 支持的二叠纪勘探与生产项目吗？

根据德克萨斯铁路委员会的数据，1 月份 Double Eagle IV 的二叠纪石油产量平均约为 38,700 桶/天。

2025 年，Double Eagle 预计将运营 5 座钻井平台，这意味着该公司可实现约 17 亿美元的 EBITDA，“相当于 25 年市盈率的约 3.0 倍，而 OVV 目前的市盈率约为 3.4 倍，”Daoud 表示。

按照五座钻机的节奏，Double Eagle 有可能在 2025 财年实现 80 口净井（100 口总井）的销售目标——根据 Enverus 的数据，这可能比 5 月份 52 口井的“24 步调”略有放缓，”Daoud 表示，“来自 6.4 亿美元的资本支出（假设 D&C 成本约为 800 美元/英尺）。”

Cowen 估计，到 2025 年，这将使石油产量增加约 65,000 桶/天（100,000 桶油当量/天），而 Ovintiv-Double Eagle 组合的预计产量将达到 669,000 桶油当量/天和 270,500 桶/天。

Ovintiv Double Eagle 展望
（来源：TD Cowen）

他说：“根据我们目前的价格水平，这将推动 EBITDAX 上涨 32% 至 63 亿美元，但考虑到增加 35 亿美元债务，杠杆率将从之前的 1.1 倍升至 1.3 倍。”“此外，我们发现这笔交易将使每股现金流增加 18%，每股自由现金流增加 20%，而按照目前的框架，每股 ROC 将增加 8%。”

怀疑与掩饰

在 Ovintiv 8 月 1 日的第二季度收益电话会议上，总裁兼首席执行官 Brendan McCracken 被一位分析师问及 Double Eagle 传闻的可信度以及 McCracken 对进一步整合 Permian 的看法。

这个开放式的问题给了麦克拉肯足够的回旋余地，而这位首席执行官也观察到，存在“大量的合并猜测”。

“我们看到的是，领先的运营商在技术上确实越来越精湛。而这种情况的发生方式，以及推动这种情况的途径，真的很难赶上，”他说。“如果你没有一直将这些创新融入到你的业务中。”

“因此，我们实施战略意味着真正专注于变得更好，而不仅仅是变得更大。”

今年早些时候，Moelis & Co. 董事长兼全球能源和清洁技术主管 Stephen Trauber表示，Double Eagle 最好保持耐心。

“看，他们有一个开放的数据室，”他说。“任何人都可以随时出价。我相信德文会看看这个，我相信其他人也会看看这个，包括刚刚买入米德兰的每个人。”

但特劳伯表示，Double Eagle 最好等到最近二叠纪的并购风波平息之后再行动。

埃克森美孚刚刚完成了对先锋自然资源公司的大规模收购，同时康菲石油公司、雪佛龙、西方石油公司和 Diamondback 能源公司也都宣布了各自处于不同阶段的交易，他问道：“为什么你想现在就尝试达成交易呢？”

原文链接/HartEnergy

Why Buying Double Eagle Does (and Doesn’t) Make Sense for Ovintiv

Proceeds from an Ovintiv divestiture in the Uinta Basin could help fund a deal for Double Eagle’s Midland Basin assets, but analysts say the money could just as easily be used for debt reduction.

Darren
Barbee
Oil and Gas Investor

Speculative M&A can be a perilous business, but analysts are sometimes indulgent in these matters, particularly when they involve the Permian Basin and a potential $5 billion to $6.5 billion deal.

Recent media reports have prompted analysts to weigh in on the potential of Ovintiv (OVV)—which has lately been more Permian-focused—snatching up Double Eagle IV’s Midland Basin holdings. Double Eagle has a history of selling to large public companies, with its last two iterations selling for a combined $9.2 billion.

Fantasy M&A players’ pulses likely quickened on Aug. 21 at Bloomberg’s report of Ovintiv’s consideration of a sale of its Uinta Basin assets, which unnamed sources suggested the company could offload for $2 billion.

A spokesperson for the company told Hart Energy on Aug. 28 that “as a general practice, Ovintiv does not comment on rumored acquisition or divestiture activities.” Double Eagle did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

TD Cowen analyst Gabe Daoud Jr. wrote on Aug. 21 that Bloomberg’s article was an “unsubstantiated report” before greedily picking apart the what ifs a divestiture of the Uinta assets could mean for Ovintiv.

Daoud expressed surprise as “investors likely viewed Anadarko [Basin holdings] as next to go in OVV's portfolio optimization efforts, but certainly makes sense given a relatively active A&D environment in the Uinta and little contribution to corporate FCF (relative to Anadarko),” Daoud wrote.

In his estimation, Uinta sale proceeds could either increase Ovintiv’s return of capital (ROC) or be used to acquire Double Eagle.

On the capital side, a $2 billion sale would hit Ovintiv’s $4 billion net debt target immediately.

“The current ROC framework could theoretically step up to 70% (from 50%) of post-dividend FCF [free cash flow] to bring total '25 payout to ~$5/[share], +18% higher [versus] our published model at ~$4.22/[share] (on cal25 pricing of ~$76 [WTI]/$3.46 [Mcf]),” he said.

The other option: “Make a play—perhaps an aggressive one—for Double Eagle (DE IV),” Daoud said.

Zacks Equity Research noted Ovintiv has been “strategically repositioning itself to focus on the Permian Basin.” In June 2023, Ovintiv closed a deal to buy three EnCap Investments portfolio companies that added 1,050 net 10,000-ft well locations and 65,000 net acres in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $4.275 billion.

“Selling its Uinta Basin assets would allow OVV to concentrate more resources on its Permian operations, aligning with the company’s goal to drive higher returns through focused investments in high-yield areas,” Zacks’ analysts said. “The company has already demonstrated this shift with the sale of its Williston Basin assets in North Dakota for $825 million in 2023.”

On Aug. 12, Cowen examined what a hypothetical acquisition of Double Eagle would look like for Ovintiv. The Reuters report suggested Double Eagle would fetch a (trial balloon) price of $6.5 billion.

Daoud’s baseline deal recalibrated at a $5 billion purchase price, which assumed a 70-30 debt-to-equity split that would be “accretive on several financial metrics, but in our view, the likelihood of a deal is low as we believe OVV retains adequate inventory & remains focused on achieving $4Bn [billion] in net debt.”

“Succinctly, we'd be surprised to see a DE IV deal at the $6.5Bn headline. Even a $5Bn valuation, though accretive, would push out OVVs $4Bn net debt target to 4Q27 v 3Q26 prior on our numbers, which we believe OVV would prefer not to do,” he said.

The Reuters report suggested that Double Eagle’s asking price was “likely anchored to the goal of ramping to [90,000] boe/d by [year-end 2024],” Daoud said.

Daoud said Cowen’s analysis does not assume synergies or any potential midstream value in the deal.

“We estimate PDP PV-10 of ~$3.6 [billion] at a $75 [WTI]/$3 [Mcf] price deck, which implies ~$40k/flowing boe relative to the [90,000] boe/d,” he said. “As for inventory, Reuters noted ~55k net acres, but we think the report could be undercounting sticks (noted 300 gross) & estimate 574 gross locations remaining (459 net assuming an 80% working interest, implies a ~6 yr inventory life) based on 1,280 acre [drilling spacing units] and 15 wells-per-section.”

That price point would suggest a $3 million per location price, “which still screens slightly rich v an [average] of $2.7MM/location paid in Permian deals since '22…but certainly more reasonable than the $6.5 [billion] figure,” he said.

Based on Cowen and Enverus data, among 2024 deals:

Double Eagle impact

Double Eagle IV has assembled a large Midland Basin footprint since its inception in 2022, with at least $1.7 billion in investor commitments from EnCap Investments, Apollo Natural Resources and Magnetar Capital.

Led by co-CEOs Cody Campbell and John Sellers, Double Eagle has a history of selling at high prices. E&P Double Eagle III—a subsidiary of DoublePoint Energy LLC—exited in 2021 through a sale to Pioneer Natural Resources for $6.4 billion. Double Eagle Holdings II LLC sold to Parsley Energy in 2017 for $2.8 billion.

RELATED

Is Double Eagle IV the Most Coveted PE-backed Permian E&P Left?

In January, Double Eagle IV’s Permian oil averaged about 38,700 bbl/d, according to Texas Railroad Commission data.

In 2025, Double Eagle is expected to run five rigs, suggesting the company can deliver EBITDA of about $1.7 billion, “implying a ~3.0x '25e multiple compared to OVV currently trading at ~3.4x,” Daoud said.

At a five-rig cadence, Double Eagle has the potential to deliver 80 net (100 gross) wells to sales in fiscal year 2025—“perhaps a slight moderation in the '24 pace of 52 wells through May per Enverus,” Daoud said, “from capex of $640MM (assuming ~$800/ft in D&C costs).”

Cowen estimated that would add about 65,000 bbl/d of oil (100,000 boe/d) in 2025—leading to a pro forma production for an Ovintiv-Double Eagle combo of 669,000 boe/d and 270,500 bbl/d.

Ovintiv Double Eagle Outlook
(Source: TD Cowen)

“Based on our current price deck, this drives EBITDAX +32% higher to $6.3 [billion], but given $3.5 [billion] of added debt, leverage would rise to 1.3x v. 1.1x prior,” he said. “Additionally, we find the deal +18% CFPS [cash flow per share] accretive and +20% FCF/[share] accretive, while ROC/[share] would increase by +8% assuming the current framework.”

Doubts and dissembling

During Ovintiv’s Aug. 1 second-quarter earnings call, President and CEO Brendan McCracken was asked by an analyst about the credibility of the Double Eagle rumors and McCracken’s thoughts on further Permian consolidation.

The open-ended question gave McCracken plenty of room to maneuver, and the CEO observed that there was “lots of consolidation speculation.”

“What we're seeing is that the leading operators really continue to get more technically sophisticated. And the way that's happening, the sort of avenues that are driving that, it's really hard to catch up,” he said. “If you haven't been stacking these innovations across your business all the way along.

“And so that leaves us in a place where prosecuting our strategy means really focused on getting better, not just on getting bigger.”

Earlier this year, Stephen Trauber, chairman and global head of energy and clean technology at Moelis & Co., said Double Eagle was better off being patient.

“Look, they’ve got a data room open,” he said. “Anybody can make a bid anytime. I am sure that Devon will take a look at that, and I'm sure that others will take a look at that, including everybody who has just bought into the Midland.”

But Trauber said that Double Eagle was better off waiting until the recent M&A dust settles in the Permian.

With Exxon Mobil coming off a massive deal to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources, along with ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Occidental Petroleum and Diamondback Energy in various stages of announced deals, “Why would you want to try to do a deal right now?” he said.