美国能源信息署 (EIA) 预计，今年美国国内石油产量将增长约 16 万桶/日，但由于生产商放缓钻探活动，2026 年产量将持平。2025 年的预测产量比该机构今年 6 月的预测低约 5 万桶/日。

报告指出：“油价下跌导致美国生产商今年放缓了钻井和完井活动。因此，我们预测美国原油产量将从2025年第二季度略高于1340万桶/日的历史最高水平下降到2026年第四季度的不足1330万桶/日。按年计算，我们现在预测2025年和2026年的原油产量平均为1340万桶/日。”

Enverus 最新数据显示，美国石油钻井平台数量约为 142 台，同比下降 57%。天然气钻井平台数量为 108 台，较去年同期下降 23%。在活跃钻井平台数量排名前十的运营商中，只有英国石油公司 (BP) 目前每周平均运营的钻井平台数量超过了 2024 年同期。

美国能源信息署（EIA）报告预计，尽管受地缘政治因素影响，西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）价格近期出现飙升，但到2026年仍将持续走软。OPEC+国家产量增加预计也将对今年的原油价格构成下行压力。

本月早些时候，该组织表示将加大力度，8 月份原油产量将增加近 55 万桶/天。

根据EIA的预测，明年大部分时间WTI油价将在每桶60美元以下，到2026年底可能突破每桶50美元。

与6月份的预测相比，该机构预计未来几个月天然气库存将增加。因此，该机构下调了天然气价格预测。EIA预计，下一季度亨利港天然气价格约为3.40美元/百万英热单位，较上个月的预测下降了16%。

总体而言，该机构预计2026年天然气价格将反弹，亨利港全年平均价格为4.40美元/百万英热单位。该机构表示，预测上调反映了2026年产量将略有下降，而液化天然气出口将继续增加的预期。

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) believes domestic oil production will grow by around 160,000 B/D this year but remain flat in 2026 as producers slow drilling activity. The forecast for 2025 is roughly 50,000 B/D less than the agency’s projections from this past June.

“Declining oil prices have contributed to US producers slowing their drilling and completion activity this year,” the report read. “As a result, we forecast US crude oil production will decline from an all-time high of just over 13.4 million B/D in the second quarter of 2025 to less than 13.3 million B/D by the fourth quarter of 2026. On an annual basis, we now forecast crude oil production will average 13.4 million B/D in both 2025 and 2026.”

The latest US rig count from Enverus shows about 142 rigs drilling for oil, down 57% year-over-year. The same count showed gas rigs at 108 units, down 23% from last year’s numbers. Of the top 10 operators by active rig count, only BP is working more rigs now on a weekly average than at this time in 2024.

The EIA report sees West Texas Intermediate (WTI) pricing continuing to soften into 2026 despite the recent spike due to the geopolitical climate. Increased production from OPEC+ countries is also expected to put downward pressure on crude prices this year.

Earlier this month, the group said to would turn the taps and add almost 550,000 B/D of crude oil output in August.

According to the EIA forecast, a barrel of WTI will spend most of next year below $60 and could brush $50 by the end of 2026.

Compared with its June forecast, the agency expects more natural gas in storage in the coming months. As a result, it reduced its forecast for natural gas prices. The EIA expects Henry Hub gas to run about $3.40/MMBtu in the upcoming quarter—that’s a 16% dip from last month’s prediction.

Overall, the agency sees gas price rebounding for 2026, with Henry Hub averaging $4.40/MMBtu for the year. It said the forecast increase reflects the expectation that production will fall slightly in 2026, while LNG exports continue to increase.