电动汽车：北极勘探和钻探经济学的扳手

Rystad 副总裁 Matthew Hale 表示，电动汽车的广泛采用将对 2030 年的石油需求和价格产生重大影响。

詹妮弗
马丁内斯
哈特能源

编者注：本文已更新，以澄清影响电动汽车市场的市场力量并更正 Matthew Hale 的名字。

Rystad Energy 供应链研究副总裁 Matthew Hale 于 5 月 2 日在休斯敦举行的海上技术会议上表示，未来的石油需求在很大程度上由电动汽车 (EV) 需求驱动。

黑尔表示，电动汽车可能会对石油和天然气的替代以及北极的石油勘探和钻探产生影响。

“影响需求情况的因素有很多，但[电动汽车的采用]是主导因素，它将取代大量石油需求，”他说。“到 2030 年，超过一半的新车销量将是电动汽车。我们对此有强烈的感受。”

Hale 预测，随着政府激励措施和市场动态的变化，2023 年将是决定电动汽车未来采用率的关键一年。中国正在削减对电动汽车的补贴，这可能会减缓电动汽车的生产和消费者的采用，而特斯拉正在降低其汽车在美国的价格，这可能会导致更容易获得。

黑尔表示，电动汽车的普及可能会吸引当前的石油消费者转向电动汽车。“2023 年”对于研究电动汽车并了解它们的发展方向来说是非常重要的一年。是高于还是低于我们的预期？”

Hale预测，考虑到电动汽车采用的需求预期，未来的石油需求可能会低于之前的预期，从而推动油价到2030年降至69美元/桶。

“我们已经发现了很多[石油]，”黑尔继续说道。黑尔预计，如果电动汽车按照一些人预测的速度得到采用，“这将导致[石油]价格下降。”

“根据我们的预期，我们认为将会有大量供应，”黑尔说。 

但这些预测并不是一成不变的。

“[对石油和天然气的需求]很大程度上取决于电动汽车的选择，”黑尔说。“我认为这会发生，但在某些情况下不会发生。” 而且您将需要更多的产品，需求也会更高。”

他还指出，这一预测更多的是关于燃料而不是任何其他供应链。

“世界将消耗更多的能源，这将继续如此，”他说。“这只是哪个行业能够转变——不会看到大量石化产品需求消失。”

物流与舆论

如果没有电动汽车的采用带来的额外位移，北极勘探和钻探所面临的挑战就很难克服。由于电动汽车的采用而导致的石油和天然气需求减少，给北极钻探活动带来了又一个障碍。

由于依赖冰盖，北极的项目可能需要十多年的开发时间。勘探和钻探只能在这些地区无冰的情况下进行，而在“一些盆地，我们全年都会看到冰，”黑尔说。

最重要的是，将钻机运输到这些偏远地区还面临着极大的挑战，这使得钻机很难有二级市场，如果冰层不清除，它们就会闲置数季甚至一年。

“在那里钻探真的很困难，”黑尔说。

北极勘探和钻探也面临政治和社会反对，一些银行公开承诺停止资助北极开发，公众也强烈反对这些项目。

“每当出现其中一个问题时，就会引起大量媒体关注，也会引起大量负面关注，”黑尔说。“无论对错，很多公众都反对这一点。”

他表示，银行停止融资业务基本上是无效的。

“在这种价格环境下，有大量现金，”黑尔表示，并指出埃克森美孚和雪佛龙是最近宣布拥有现金自筹资金的主要北极参与者的好例子。“一般来说，进行这种探索的人都是自筹资金的。”

他确实指出，他们的自筹资金能力依赖于石油价格的保持稳定。

黑尔认为，就成本挑战而言，在北极钻探方面，负面公众舆论可能是比油价更重要的因素。

“我们会被允许这样做吗？”

原文链接/hartenergy

Electric Vehicles: A Wrench in the Economics of Arctic Exploration and Drilling

Rystad Vice President Matthew Hale says widespread adoption of electric vehicles will have a significant impact on oil demand and price going into 2030.

Jennifer
Martinez
Hart Energy

Editor's note: This article has been updated to clarify the market forces influencing the EV market and to correct Matthew Hale's name.

The future of oil demand is in large part driven by electric vehicle (EV) demand, Matthew Hale, vice president of supply chain research at Rystad Energy, said on May 2 at the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston.

Hale said electric vehicles may have an impact on displacing oil and gas, as well as oil exploration and drilling in the Arctic.

“There’s a lot of factors that affect the demand picture, but [electric vehicle adoption] is the dominant thing that’s going to displace a lot of oil demand,” he said. “Over half of new vehicle sales will be EVs by 2030. We feel fairly strongly about this.”

Hale predicted 2023 will be a pivotal year for determining the future adoption rate of electric vehicles as government incentives and market dynamics shift. China is cutting subsidies for electric vehicles, which could slow down their production and adoption by consumers, and Tesla is dropping the price of their cars in the U.S., which could lead to greater accessibility.

Improved accessibility to electric vehicles may entice current oil consumers to make the switch to electric, Hale said. “[2023] is a really important year to look at EVs and see which way they’re tracking. Is it higher or lower than our expectations?”

Hale predicts that, taking into consideration demand expectations for electric vehicle adoption, future demand for oil may be lower than previously anticipated, pushing oil prices down to as low as $69/bbl by 2030.

“We have so much [oil] discovered already,” Hale continued. If electric vehicles are adopted at the rate some are predicting they will be, Hale foresees “it’s going to drive the [oil] price down.”

“We think there’s going to be a lot of supply based on our expectations,” Hale said. 

But these predictions aren’t set in stone.

“A lot of [the need for oil and gas] depends on having the EV option,” Hale said. “We think that will happen, but there’s a case where that doesn’t. And you’ll need more in the pipeline and demand will be higher.”

He also pointed out that this prediction is more about fuels than any other supply chain.

“The world’s going to consume more energy, that’s going to continue to be true,” he said. “It’s just which sector is going to be able to switch…We don’t see a lot of petrochemical demand going away.”

Logistics and public opinion

The challenges facing exploration and drilling in the Arctic are difficult enough to surpass without the added displacement that electric vehicle adoption brings. Reduced oil and gas demand due to EV adoption adds yet another hurdle to the many that drilling in the Arctic faces.

Projects in the Arctic can have over a decade of development time due to being reliant on ice cover. Exploration and drilling can only happen when the areas are ice-free, and in “some basins, we see ice throughout the year,” Hale said.

On top of that, extreme challenges come with transporting rigs to these remote locations that make it difficult to have a secondary market for the rigs, leaving them idle for seasons or even a year if the ice doesn’t clear.

“It’s really difficult to drill there,” Hale said.

Arctic exploration and drilling also face political and social opposition, with some banks publicly committing to stop funding Arctic development and vocal public backlash to projects.

“Whenever one of these comes up, it gets a lot of media attention, it gets a lot of negative attention,” Hale said. “Right or wrong, a lot of the public is against this.”

Banks ceasing funding operations is largely ineffective, he said.

“In this price environment, there’s a lot of cash,” Hale said, noting that Exxon Mobil and Chevron were good examples of major Arctic players that recently announced they have the cash to self-fund. “The people that are going to do that exploration in general are self-funded.”

He did specify that their ability to self-fund relied on the prices of oil staying stable.

Challenges of cost being what they are, Hale thinks negative public opinion could be an even bigger factor than oil prices when it comes to drilling in the Arctic.

“Are we even going to be allowed to do it?”