作者：Bruce Beaubouef，执行编辑

根据油田市场咨询公司最近发布的报告，Evercore ISI 列出的“三大”海上钻井公司（Transocean、Noble Corp. 和 Valaris）均报告称，​​它们“海上基本面强劲，前景乐观”，这种状况可能会延续到 2030 年。

Evercore 的分析基于三家海上钻井承包商在 8 月初连续召开的财报电话会议上提供的信息。

Evercore 写道：“投资不足以及对能源安全和可靠性的日益关注继续推动多年增长。”“油价相对稳定在约 80 美元/桶布伦特原油，预计由于需求增加、地缘政治制约和 OPEC 审慎的供应决策，油价将继续保持高位。高油价和对海上上升周期长短的重新认识，降低了石油和天然气行业的周期性风险，可能会使 2025 年及以后成为全球增长年。”  

该公司写道：“我们相信海上钻井子行业仍处于多年上升周期的早期阶段。”分析指出，部分钻井平台的日费率已大幅反弹，主要地区的需求正在增加。前沿日费率徘徊在 50 万美元/天左右，越来越多的合同被授予 50 万美元/天的低至中水平。浮式钻井平台和自升式钻井平台的市场利用率已大幅提高，分别达到 80% 和 90% 左右。

尽管日费率快速上涨，但新建钻井平台仍然稀缺，钻井平台的恢复速度也低于预期，“这让我们相信日费率很有可能上涨，尤其是在 2025 年末或 2026 年，”Evercore 写道。“我们预计，随着强劲的 FID 渠道转化为固定装置，钻井平台供应将进一步收紧，2024 年上半年的签约活动将有所恢复。”  

该公司指出，今年迄今已有 11 个项目达成最终投资决定，其中 9 个项目为浅水或深水项目。预计到今年年底，另有 20 多个项目将达成最终投资决定，而 2023 年获批项目总数为 24 个。11 个项目的承诺投资额超过 300 亿美元（储量超过 30 亿桶油当量），主要包括深水 FPSO 开发项目。其余项目的投资额可能超过 800 亿美元，2024 年的承诺资本支出总额可能与 2023 年的约 1250 亿美元持平或略低，其中大部分预计将分配给海上开发。

Evercore 表示，2024 年上半年的承包活动有些缓慢，原因是 1) 资本纪律和利益相关者协调的复杂性，2) 过去几年全球项目积压急剧增加导致的供应链限制，以及 3) E&P 整合。深水钻井平台的积压订单可能会在 2025 年保持平稳，然后在 2025 年下半年恢复。

不过，该公司还指出，由于 OPEC+ 有效管理供应，碳氢化合物需求增加和大宗商品价格稳定，海上基本面得到了良好支撑。布伦特原油现货价格目前约为每桶 80 美元，五年期远期价格仍保持在每桶 70 美元的水平，这继续支持当前海上和国际上升周期的持久性。

该公司写道：“我们预计 UDW [超深水钻井平台] 的承包活动将在 2025 年下半年及以后显著改善。”Evercore 表示，金三角地区占全球 UDW 市场的 75% 以上，并指出目前巴西有 34 个钻井平台（去年有 27 个），圭亚那有 5 个钻井平台，哥伦比亚有 1 个钻井平台，但苏里南附近没有。报告指出，到 2026 年，该地区预计将再增加 5 个钻井平台，达到 45 个钻井平台。Evercore 表示，拉丁美洲 UDW 机会增加的主要驱动因素是 Sepia 和 Roncador 招标。

至于美国墨西哥湾，该公司指出，“尽管上游整合活动活跃，但该地区仍保持稳定，目前有 23 个深水钻井平台在运行。我们预计，美国墨西哥湾和墨西哥在短期内将保持平稳。”

报道补充称，西非目前共有约18座已签约的UDW钻井平台（较去年略有减少），其中安哥拉以7座钻井平台位居榜首。

Evercore 还指出，“未来几年，莫桑比克、加纳、尼日利亚和纳米比亚有许多海上项目有望达成最终投资决定。”报告称，纳米比亚可能发展成为一个拥有至少三到五个钻井平台的市场；目前它只有一个活跃的钻井平台。总体而言，到 2026 年，非洲可能推动 UDW 钻井平台需求增加，达到五个以上。

地中海和黑海地区可能会在未来一到两年内失去一座钻井平台，而印度尼西亚预计将从 2025 年底或 2026 年开始在远东地区增加几座钻井平台。挪威、英国和加拿大的恶劣环境市场预计将保持平稳。

报告还指出，沙特阿美计划再开放 5 座钻井平台。3 月初，该公司宣布计划在 2024 年至 2028 年期间减少约 400 亿美元的资本投资，这主要是因为沙特决定将生产能力维持在 1200 万桶/天。这导致 Safaniyah 扩建项目（+7 亿桶/天/260 亿美元）和 Manifa 扩建项目（+3 亿桶/天/60 亿美元）被推迟，伍德麦肯兹表示，目前预计这两个项目将分别于 2026 年 7 月和 2027 年 2 月实现最终投资决定。

由于两个石油项目的推迟和该国的重点转向天然气，阿美公司迄今已暂停了 22 个钻井平台，其中至少六个钻井平台已在其他地区获得工作。尽管沙特阿拉伯预计将释放至少五个额外的钻井平台，但 Evercore 表示，它“预计自升式钻井平台日费率不会有任何显著下降”。

Evercore 表示，浮式钻井平台和自升式钻井平台的日费率都在上涨。钻井平台日费率上涨的主要驱动因素是钻井平台供应紧张；钻井人员对钻井平台恢复运营保持纪律；新钻井平台缺乏；以及钻井平台自然流失。

报告指出，“我们看到日均 50 万美元以上的合同数量正在增加。”值得注意的是，UDW 浮动钻井平台的前沿日费率在 50 万美元/天的范围内，尽管“一些钻井公司可能会以较低的日费率签订长期合同或短期合同来填补空白。”

Evercore 表示，在短期内（明年），可能会有五到十艘第七代钻井船进入市场。但尽管如此，该公司表示，“随着运营商继续争夺优质资产，开发项目 [继续] 实现，我们预计日费率将进一步上涨。”

报告还指出，恶劣环境自升式钻井平台的日租金也在上涨，前沿日租金已升至15万美元/天以上。

By Bruce Beaubouef, Managing Editor

The “Big 3” offshore drillers – listed as Transocean, Noble Corp., and Valaris by Evercore ISI – are all reporting “strong offshore fundamentals and a robust outlook” that will likely stretch out to 2030, according to a recent report by the oilfield marketplace consulting firm.

Evercore based its analysis on information presented by the three offshore drilling contractors in back to-back earnings calls held in early August.

“Years of underinvestment and an increasing focus on energy security and reliability continue to drive multi-year growth,” Evercore wrote. “Oil prices are relatively stable at ~$80/bbl Brent and are expected to remain elevated due to increasing demand, geopolitical constraints, and OPEC’s prudent supply decisions. High oil prices and a renewed view on the longevity of the offshore upcycle, de-risking the cyclical nature of the oil and gas industry, will likely shape 2025+ to be a growth year globally.”  

“We believe [that] the offshore drilling subsector is still in the early innings of a multi-year upcycle,” the firm wrote. The analysis noted that day rates have rebounded sharply for select rig classes, with incremental demand emerging from key geographies. Leading edge day rates are hovering around $500,000/day, with an increasing number of contracts being awarded in the low- to mid-$500,000/day range. Marketed utilization for both floaters and jackups has materially improved to the high 80s and low 90s percentage-wise, respectively.

Despite a rapid uptick in dayrates, newbuilds remain scarce and rig reactivations are slower than expected, “which makes us believe higher dayrates are highly likely, especially in late 2025 or 2026,” Evercore wrote. “We anticipate contracting activity, which was somewhat slow in 1H24, to recover as the robust FID pipeline translates to fixtures, further tightening rig supply.”  

The firm noted that eleven projects have reached FID year-to-date, with nine projects being either shallow or deepwater. Another 20+ projects are expected to reach FID by the end of the year, which compares to a total of 24 sanctioned projects in 2023. Eleven projects account for $30+ billion of committed investment (three-plus billion boe of reserves) and are mostly comprised of deepwater FPSO developments. Remaining projects are likely to exceed $80 billion of investment, and the total committed capex in 2024 is likely to stay in line or slightly below the approximately $125 billion seen in 2023, with the majority expected to be allocated to offshore development.

Evercore said that contracting activity in the first half of 2024 has been somewhat slow due to 1) capital discipline and stakeholder alignment complexities, 2) supply chain constraints resulting from the sharp rise in global project backlogs over the past few years, and 3) E&P consolidations. The backlog for the deepwater rigs will likely remain flat into 2025 before recovering in 2H25.

Nevertheless, the firm also noted that offshore fundamentals are well supported by increasing demand for hydrocarbons and stable commodity prices as OPEC+ effectively manages supply. Brent spot prices are currently trading at ~$80/bbl and the five-year forward prices remain at the $70/bbl level, which continues to support the longevity of the current offshore and international upcycle.

“We anticipate contracting activity for UDW [ultra-deepwater rigs] to meaningfully improve in 2H25-plus,” the firm wrote. The Golden Triangle comprises 75%+ of the global UDW market, Evercore said, noting that there are currently 34 rigs in Brazil (up from 27 rigs last year), five rigs in Guyana, and one rig in Colombia, but none off Suriname. This region is expected to add five more rigs to 45 rigs by 2026, the report noted. The key drivers of the incremental UDW opportunities in Latin America are the Sepia and Roncador tenders, Evercore said.

As for the US Gulf of Mexico, the firm noted that “despite active upstream consolidation…this region [has] remained stable, with a current activity of 23 deepwater rigs. We anticipate [that] the US GoM and Mexico [will] remain flat in the near term.”

The report added that West Africa currently has about 18 contracted UDW rigs (a slight decrease from last year), which is currently being led by Angola with seven rigs.

Evercore also noted that “there are many offshore projects in the pipeline expected to reach FID over the next several years across Mozambique, Ghana, Nigeria, and Namibia.” Namibia could mature into a market with at least three to five rigs; it currently has one active rig, the report said. In aggregate, Africa could drive incremental UDW rig demand of five-plus units by 2026.

The Mediterranean and Black Sea regions could lose one unit over the next one to two years, while Indonesia is anticipated to add a couple more rigs in the Far East region starting in late 2025 or 2026. Harsh environment markets across Norway, the UK, and Canada are expected to remain flat.

The report also noted that Saudi Aramco plans to release five additional rigs. Earlier in March, the company announced plans to reduce capital investment by ~$40 billion between 2024 and 2028, primarily due to the Kingdom’s decision to maintain productive capacity at 12 MMbbl/d. This resulted in the deferral of the Safaniyah expansion project (+700 MMbbl per day/$26 billion) and the Manifa expansion project (+300 MMbbl per day/$6 billion), which are now forecasted to achieve FIDs in July 2026 and February 2027, respectively, according to Wood Mackenzie.

With the deferral of two oil projects and the country’s focus shifting to gas, Aramco has suspended 22 rigs to date, with at least six rigs already securing work in other regions. Although Saudi Arabia is expected to release at least five additional rigs, Evercore says that it does “not anticipate any meaningful deterioration in jackup day rates.”

Day rates for both floaters and jackups are on the rise, Evercore said. The primary drivers of higher rig day rates are tight rig supply; drillers remaining disciplined about rig reactivation; a lack of newbuilds; and natural rig attrition.

“We are seeing an increasing number of contracts above $500,000/day,” the report observed. Notably, leading edge day rates for UDW floaters are in the 500,000/day range, although “some drillers might take lower day rates for long-term contracts or short-term contracts to fill whitespace.”

Evercore said that in the near term (over the next year), there could be five to ten incremental seventh-generation drillships that could enter the market. But despite this, the firm said that “we expect day rates to further climb as operators continue to scramble for high-quality assets and development projects [continue to] materialize.”

The report also noted that day rates for harsh environment jackups are also on the rise, with leading edge day rates rising above $150,000/day.