随着美国新政府上台并出台一系列行政命令，石油和天然气行业已将重点从能源转型转向增加石油产量。

新任美国能源部长克里斯·赖特在标普全球举办的剑桥能源研究与发展周开幕全体会议上表示：“我们毫不掩饰地推行增加美国能源生产和基础设施的政策，而不是减少。”

在3月11日的会议上，专家们自称是“现实主义者”，采取注重“现实”的方法来解决能源需求。

赖特在担任能源部长之前曾担任自由能源公司的首席执行官，他誓言要对能源政策进行“180度大转变”，他指的是上一届政府的做法“短视地关注气候变化，而将人类视为附带损害”。

尽管他承认化石燃料产生的温室气体排放正在加剧全球变暖，但赖特表示，太阳能、风能和电池“没有物理方法”可以取代天然气的“多种”用途。

沙特阿美公司总裁兼首席执行官阿敏·纳赛尔在节目后面的演讲中也表达了同样的观点。

“新能源增加了能源结构，补充了现有能源。它们不会取代现有能源。这就是为什么当前不成熟地转向不成熟替代能源的战略是如此具有自我毁灭性，”纳赛尔说。

他指出，除了已在能源转型和气候变化举措上投资的100亿美元外，全球气候行动每年还需要大约6万亿至8万亿美元的资金。

“即使有了电动汽车，替代能源也几乎没有带来什么改变……电动汽车的总普及率仍然只有 4%，而风能和太阳能加起来也只占全球能源供应的不到 4%——也就是说，我们在 100 英里的旅程中才走了 4 英里。”

经过多年对能源转型的雄心勃勃的想法，雪佛龙首席执行官迈克·沃斯同意采取更为慎重的方法可能是更好的选择。

“我们看到一些现实问题在对话中重新出现。多年来，我的主张一直是引导关于可负担性、可靠性和环境的平衡对话，而只关注气候问题会让我们忽视前两个问题，”他说。

石油需求

纳赛尔表示，他预计今年石油需求将增长 130 万桶/日和 150 万桶/日，在市场平衡的情况下，需求将达到约 1.06 亿桶/日。他指出，随着发展中国家（尤其是全球南方国家）的人们获得和消费更多能源，需求将继续增长。

他说：“去年我们看到的增长有 60% 来自全球南方国家。10 亿人消耗了 [全球] 能源的 40%，而 60 亿人消耗了剩下的 60%。”

纳赛尔表示，随着这些地区日益繁荣，越来越多地使用汽车、空调和人工智能等产品，预计这些产品将在未来几年对能源需求产生重大影响，能源消耗的百分比和总量都可能发生变化。

人工智能

在谈到人工智能的影响时，赖特表示这只是“冰山一角”。

“产生智能需要大量的电力。投入的能源越多，产生的智能就越多，”他说。“由于对能源的需求是无限的，对智能的需求也是无限的，因此对能源的需求也将是无限的。”

纳赛尔表示，新能源无法满足如此巨大的需求，他强调传统能源仍是必需的。他将目前的计划描述为“通往反乌托邦的快车道，而不是乌托邦”，并开玩笑说：“猫王登台演讲的可能性比目前的计划成功的可能性更大。”

纳赛尔认为，强调三项核心原则可以加强全球能源政策。

三个核心原则

纳赛尔表示：“首先，所有能源都必须发挥越来越重要的作用，以平衡、综合的方式满足日益增长的能源需求。”这包括对新能源和替代能源的投资，以补充传统能源。

其次，他说，该模式必须真正满足发达国家和发展中国家的需求。由于交通和工业等行业的电气化，以及人工智能驱动的数据中心和电动汽车等新需求中心的兴起，全球电力消耗预计将在 2050 年翻一番，电动汽车消耗了这一增长的很大一部分。他指出，交通运输部门（包括公路、航运和航空）目前占全球石油消耗的约 60%。

最后，他说该战略必须取得实际成果。

“这并不意味着放弃我们的全球气候目标。减少温室气体排放仍必须成为最高优先事项……但能源的未来不仅仅是可持续性。安全性和可负担性必须同时存在。”

维尔特与纳赛尔持有类似观点，表达了他对能源政策不断反复的失望和对更为稳定的做法的渴望。

“从一个极端走向另一个极端并不是正确的政策方针，”维尔特告诉听众。“我们已经分配了数十年的资金，因此我们确实需要一致且持久的政策。”

他的言论并不令人意外，因为雪佛龙首席执行官预计未来几年墨西哥湾的石油产量将从去年的 20 万桶/日增至 30 万桶/日。他补充说，雪佛龙在二叠纪盆地的石油产量很快将达到 100 万桶/日。

“我们需要在立法中看到这些内容，以便它更持久，并且不会面临被未来政府改变方向的风险。”

In the wake of the new US administration and a series of executive orders, the oil and gas industry has shifted its focus away from the energy transition and toward increased oil production.

“We are unabashedly pursuing a policy of more American energy production and infrastructure, not less,” newly appointed US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said in the opening plenary talk of CERAWeek by S&P Global.

During the session on 11 March, experts described themselves as "realists," adopting an approach focused on "reality" to address energy needs.

Wright, the former CEO of Liberty Energy before becoming Secretary of Energy, vowed to execute a “180-degree pivot” on energy policy, referring to the previous administration’s approach as being “focused myopically on climate change, with people as simply collateral damage.”

Although he acknowledged that greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels were contributing to global warming, Wright said “there is no physical way” solar, wind, and batteries could replace the “myriad” uses of natural gas.

Amin Nasser, president and CEO of Saudi Aramco, echoed Wright’s view during his speech later in the program.

“New sources add to the energy mix and complement existing sources. They do not replace them. That's why the current strategy of immaturely switching to immature alternatives has been so self-destructive,” Nasser said.

In addition to the $10 billion already invested in energy transition and climate change initiatives, he noted that global climate action will require an estimated $6 trillion to $8 trillion more annually.

“Alternatives have barely made a dent, even with EVs … the total penetration of EVs is still only 4%, and with wind and solar combined, is also less than 4% of global energy supplies—then we are barely 4 miles into a 100-mile journey.”

After years of ambitious ideas about energy transition, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth agreed that a more measured approach might be preferable.

“We're seeing some reality come back in the conversation. For years, my message has been leading a balanced conversation about affordability, reliability, and the environment, and focusing only on climate leads us to ignore the first two,” he said.

Oil Demand

Nasser said he expects oil demand to grow by 1.3 million and 1.5 million B/D this year, reaching approximately 106 million B/D in a balanced market. He noted that demand growth will continue as people in developing nations, particularly in the Global South, gain access to and consume more energy.

“60% of the growth that we've seen last year came from the Global South," he said. “One billion people have consumed 40% of [global] energy, with 6 billion consuming the remaining 60%.”

As these regions grow in prosperity and gain greater access to items like cars, air conditioning, and artificial intelligence (AI), which is expected to significantly impact energy demand in the coming years, both the percentages and the total amount of energy consumed are likely to change, Nasser said.

Artificial Intelligence

When speaking about the impact of AI, Wright said it is only at the “tip of the iceberg.”

“It takes massive amounts of electricity to generate intelligence. The more energy invested, the more intelligence produced,” he said. “Since the demand for energy is unlimited, since the demand for intelligence is unlimited, so will be the demand for energy.”

Nasser stated that new energy sources are unable to meet this massive demand, emphasizing the continued need for conventional sources. He described the current plan as a "fast-track to dystopia, not utopia," and jokingly remarked, "There’s more chance of Elvis speaking next than the current plan working."

Nasser believes that emphasizing three core principles could strengthen global energy policy.

Three Core Principles

“First, all sources must play a growing role in meeting rising energy demand in a balanced, integrated manner,” said Nasser. This includes investments in new and alternative energy sources to complement conventional energy.

Secondly, he said, the model must genuinely serve the needs of developed and developing nations alike. Global electricity consumption is expected to double by 2050 due to electrification in sectors like transport and industry, as well as the rise of new demand centers such as AI-driven data centers and electric vehicles consuming a large share of that growth. He noted that the transportation sector (including road, shipping, and aviation) currently accounts for about 60% of global oil consumption.

Lastly, he said the strategy must be about delivering real results.

“This does not mean stepping back from our global climate ambitions. Reducing GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions must still get the highest possible priority … but the future of energy is not only about sustainability. Security and affordability must share the stage.”

Wirth shared similar views with Nasser, expressing his frustration with the constant back-and-forth of energy policy and his desire for a more stable approach.

“Swinging from one extreme to another is not the right policy approach,” Wirth told the audience. “We have allocated capital that's out there for decades, and so we really need consistent and durable policy.”

His comments come as no surprise as the Chevron CEO expects to increase output in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few years to 300,000 B/D, up from 200,000 B/D last year. He added that Chevron will soon reach 1 million B/D in the Permian Basin.

“We need to see some of this in legislation so it’s more durable and not at risk of being swung back in another direction by a future administration.”