运营商可以通过从非常规油藏中开采更多的石油和天然气，帮助二叠纪盆地继续成为“不断给予的礼物”。

6 月 9 日，在休斯顿举行的非常规资源技术会议开幕全体会议上，发言者表示，预计油价在回升之前会先下降，但对于利用非常规油藏进行生产的运营商来说，机会仍然存在。

Pickering Energy Partners 创始人兼首席信息官丹·皮克林 (Dan Pickering) 表示，尽管能源需求可能只会随着时间的推移而增长，但未来 18 至 24 个月石油市场可能会面临困境。

他指出，美国总统特朗普专注于“钻探，宝贝，钻探”战略，旨在降低美国消费者的能源价格，这可能导致油价跌至每桶 50 美元，然后回升至 70 美元。

尽管有人认为，尤其是 Diamondback 首席执行官特拉维斯·斯蒂斯 (Travis Stice) 认为美国的产量已经达到顶峰，但皮克林既同意又不同意。

“油价每桶65美元时，我们的产量可能已经达到峰值。油价每桶95美元时，我认为有很多地方可能带来产量增长，”他说道。

与欧佩克成员国的产量相比，美国生产的石油对价格较为敏感。“当价格不敏感的石油进入市场时，它们会挤走价格敏感的石油，”他表示。

皮克林表示，该行业需要尝试其他方法——从增加勘探到从现有油藏中获取更多资源。最大的机遇来自于非常规油藏中巨大的剩余储量。

“我们的付出不会永远持续下去。所以，它会逐渐成熟。这个受众群体，这个行业面临的挑战之一，是如何延长它的寿命，让它付出的时间比它想要的更长，”他说道，并指出技术将是关键因素。

Oxy公司米德兰盆地业务部总裁兼总经理Thaimar Ramirez称二叠纪盆地是一份持续馈赠的礼物，并表示其蕴藏着巨大的潜力。提高采收效率是该地区的主旋律。她表示，“个位数”的采收率是不可接受的，各公司需要重新思考最大化采收率的方法以及何时启动三次采油。

Liberty Energy 工程部高级副总裁 Leen Weijers 表示，服务公司提供的技术可以帮助运营商提高效率，以更低的成本生产石油，从而降低石油对价格的敏感度。“我们仍然可以从剩余的资源中榨取更多的潜力，”他说。

Advanced Resources International 首席执行官乔治·科佩纳 (George Koperna) 表示，该行业必须更加注重现有油藏的二次生产。“我们已经付了钱，但仍然没有得到很多奶昔，”他说道，指的是一次开采后留下的储量。

他还表示，展望未来，该行业必须努力缩短新兴剧目的学习曲线。

科佩纳表示，虽然非常规资源遍布世界各地，但开采这些资源需要技术知识。韦杰斯表示，这意味着该行业需要输出其知识。

包括人工智能（AI）在内的技术也将发挥作用。

巨大潜力

小组成员表示，毫无疑问，人工智能有潜力改变这个行业。

拉米雷斯表示，Oxy 已经有超过 200 个用例，其中部署人工智能技术具有价值主张。然而，除了这种可能性之外，还有对工作保障的担忧。

她说：“大多数人都担心自己的工作”，并补充说，情况不一定如此，因为人工智能部署的目的是消除日常任务。

“信息是：“我将要换工作，所以实际上，你可以专注于更具战略性的任务，”她说。

人工智能即将到来，它将影响工人。

“如果你对人工智能不感兴趣，我强烈建议你去适应它，如果你愿意的话，可以适应它，或者舒服地不适应它，”拉米雷斯说。

皮克林还敦促员工拥抱人工智能。“我们的工作流程将会大不相同，而且很快就会发生，”他说。“我想我们中没有人确切知道这将如何运作。这将是非常自然的，但这意义重大。”

下一代需求、劳动力

尽管人们预计石油和天然气在可预见的未来仍将是能源结构的重要组成部分，但如何鼓励年轻的专业人​​士选择能源行业作为职业却不太明确。

韦杰斯表示，从某种程度上来说，该行业是自身成功的受害者，至少就其效率的提升而言是如此。尽管如此，他补充道，该行业仍有大量机会扩大其影响力。

科佩纳表示，该行业需要改变这种说法。

“我认为人们说我们正处于石油顶峰并没有什么帮助，”他说。

皮克林表示，改变这种说法可能很难，并建议从其他领域引进人才作为方法。

“我认为我们实际上非常擅长从（其他）行业吸引经验丰富的人才加入我们，”他说，“让理想主义的大学生来工作很难。我认为，让更现实的25岁或30岁的人转行要容易一些。”

Operators can help the Permian Basin continue to be the “gift that keeps giving” by extracting more oil and gas from unconventional reservoirs.

Oil prices are expected to drop before they improve, but opportunities remain for operators with production from unconventional reservoirs, speakers said during the opening plenary at the Unconventional Resources Technology Conference in Houston on 9 June.

Dan Pickering, founder and CIO of Pickering Energy Partners, said that while energy demand is likely to only grow over time, things might be tough for oil over the next 18 to 24 months.

He noted that US President Trump’s focus on “drill, baby, drill” strategy—aimed at lowering energy prices for American consumers—could contribute to oil prices dipping into the $50s/bbl before rising back up to the $70s.

And while it has been suggested, notably by Diamondback CEO Travis Stice, that US production has peaked, Pickering both agrees and disagrees.

“US production has probably peaked for oil at $65 (per barrel). Oil at $95, I think there’s plenty of locations that (could) likely supply growth,” he said.

The US produces “price-sensitive” barrels, compared to output from OPEC members. “As price-insensitive barrels enter the market, they will push out the price-sensitive barrels,” he said.

Pickering said the industry needs to try other things—from additional exploration to getting more out of existing reservoirs. The biggest opportunity comes from the vast remaining reserves within unconventional reservoirs.

“Shale won't give forever. So, it's going to mature. One of the challenges to this audience, this industry, is to stretch it out, make it give longer than it wants to,” he said, noting technology will be a key piece.

Thaimar Ramirez, president and general manager of the Midland Basin business unit, Oxy, called the Permian the gift that keeps giving and said tremendous potential remains. Increasing efficiency of recovery is the main theme in the area. Recovery factors in the “single digits” are not acceptable, and companies need to rethink their approach to maximizing recovery and when to initiate tertiary recovery, she said.

Leen Weijers, SVP of engineering at Liberty Energy, said technologies available through service companies can help operators be more efficient and produce oil at lower costs to make those barrels less price-sensitive.“There’s still a lot of room left to squeeze more juice out of what we have left,” he said.

Advanced Resources International CEO George Koperna said the industry must focus more on secondary production in existing reservoirs. “There’s a lot of milkshake we’ve paid for and are still not getting,” he said, referring to reserves left behind following primary extraction.

He also said that moving forward, the industry must strive to collapse the learning curve for emerging plays.

And while unconventional resources exist around the world, they need technical savvy to unlock them, Koperna said. That means, Weijers said, the industry needs to export its knowledge.

Technology, including artificial intelligence (AI) will also play a role.

Vast Potential

There’s no doubt, panelists said, that AI has the potential to make a difference in the industry.

Ramirez said Oxy already has more than 200 use cases where there is a value proposition for deploying AI technology. Alongside that possibility, however, is concern about job security.

“The majority of people are worried about their jobs,” she said, adding that doesn’t have to be the case because the intent behind AI deployments is to eliminate routine tasks.

“The message is: ‘AI is going to change the job, so actually, you can focus on more tasks that are more strategic,’” she said.

AI is coming, and it will affect workers.

“If you are not into AI, I highly recommend you get used to it, comfortable, or comfortably uncomfortable, if you will,” Ramirez said.

Pickering also urged workers to embrace AI. “Our workflows are going to be so much different, and it's going to happen fast,” he said. “I don’t think any of us know exactly how that will work. It would be really organic, but it’s a big deal.”

Next-Gen Demand, Workforce

While the expectation is that oil and gas will continue as a major part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future, it’s less clear how to encourage young professionals to choose a career in the energy industry.

Weijers said that to some extent the industry is a victim of its own success, at least in terms of how much more efficient it has become. That said, he added, there is still plenty of opportunity to expand the industry’s impact.

Koperna said the industry needs to change the narrative.

“I don’t think people saying we’re at peak oil helps,” he said.

Pickering said changing the narrative may be tough and suggested pulling workers from other fields as an approach.

“I think we’re actually really good at pulling in experienced people from (other) industries into our industry,” he said. “Getting the idealistic college student to come work—it's tough. Getting a more realistic 25- or 30-year-old to change careers is, I think, a little bit easier.”