最近几天油价突然暴跌，不禁让人想问，如果WTI价格跌至每桶50美元会怎样？

标普全球商品洞察数据显示，在这样的价格水平下，美国本土 48 个州的陆上原油产量在 12 个月内可能下降超过 100 万桶/日。

“WTI 油价如何、为何以及何时跌至每桶 50 美元仍是一个悬而未决的问题，”标普全球商品洞察全球石油执行董事 Bhushan Bahree表示。“这可能需要很长时间，也可能很快，或者根本不会跌。但在全球金融市场崩溃、贸易争端加剧以及 OPEC+ 于 4 月 3 日意外决定在 5 月份加速增加石油产量的背景下，每桶 50 美元的油价及其对美国生产的影响现在是一个值得深思的问题。”

在 4 月 2 日美国宣布征收关税之前，标普全球大宗商品洞察全球原油市场短期展望最新的基本预测是，预计 2025 年年平均价格将为每桶 67 美元，美国本土 48 个州的原油产量全年将增长约 15 万桶/日。

The sudden plunge in oil prices in recent days begs the question, what if WTI prices go as low as $50 per barrel?

At such a price level, U.S. Lower 48 onshore crude oil production could decline by more than 1 million b/d over 12 months, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

“How, why, and when WTI might fall to $50 is still an open question," said Bhushan Bahree, Executive Director, Global Oil, S&P Global Commodity Insights. "It could be a long while, it could be soon, or not at all. But amid a global financial market rout, intensifying trade disputes and OPEC+’s unexpected April 3 decision to accelerate oil output increases in May, $50 oil—and the resulting impacts on U.S. production—is now a fair question to ponder.”

Prior to the April 2 announcement of U.S. tariffs, the most recent S&P Global Commodity Insights Global Crude Oil Markets Short-term Outlook base case expected an annual average price of $67 per barrel in 2025 and U.S. onshore Lower 48 production growth of about 150,000 bpd over the course of the year.