DUBAI – Oil producer group OPEC said on Wednesday it was encouraged by a commentary from the International Energy Agency (IEA) which underscored the importance of oil security, while the two remained far apart on the demand outlook.
The commentary by the IEA, which advises industrialised countries, follows clashes between it and OPEC in recent years over issues such as long-term demand and the need for investment in new supplies.
“At OPEC, we are encouraged by this message and the reference to the continuing importance of oil to the world,” the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a statement.
The two sides have diverging views on oil demand for this year and beyond. The IEA expects demand to peak by 2030 while OPEC sees no peak in its forecasts, which stretch to 2045.
The IEA said global dependence on oil was decreasing but remained deep-rooted and supply disruptions could still lead to “significant economic harm and have a substantial negative impact on people’s lives.”
“There is a high degree of uncertainty around how quickly demand will fall, leaving oil companies facing difficult and commercially risky decisions around upstream investment,” the IEA said in a commentary by energy security analyst Ronan Graham and researcher Ilias Atigui on Monday.
OPEC agreed but said the IEA’s calls for no new investments in oil and natural gas have “contributed significantly to this uncertainty, which has the potential to lead to major energy chaos, not the desired energy security.”
The IEA and OPEC’s views on demand are further apart than they have been for at least 16 years, Reuters reported this week. OPEC+, which groups OPEC and allies including Russia, decided in 2022 it would stop using data from the IEA when assessing the state of the oil market.
Almost 200 countries at December’s COP28 climate summit in Dubai agreed the world needs to transition away from fossil fuels.
The IEA in 2021 said investors should not fund new oil, gas and coal supply projects if the world wants to reach net zero emissions by mid-century, a turnaround from earlier calls to invest more.
“OPEC has consistently reaffirmed its commitment to oil market stability and security of supply, including through its Members holding spare capacity at their own cost in case of any unforeseen global oil supply disruptions,” OPEC said.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, was for decades the world’s only source of significant spare oil capacity, which acts as a safety cushion for global supplies in case of major disruptions. In recent years, fellow OPEC member the United Arab Emirates has also built up spare capacity.
The IEA argues that increasing clean energy is the most effective way for governments to boost energy security.
(Reporting by Yousef Saba in Dubai and Alex Lawler in London; editing by Jason Neely and Bernadette Baum)
Lead image (Credit: Reuters)
纳斯达克
迪拜——石油生产国组织欧佩克周三表示，国际能源署 (IEA) 的评论强调了石油安全的重要性，该组织对此感到鼓舞，但两者在需求前景方面仍存在很大分歧。
为工业化国家提供咨询服务的国际能源署是在其与欧佩克近年来在长期需求和新供应投资需求等问题上发生冲突之后发表评论的。
石油输出国组织在一份声明中表示，“在欧佩克，我们对这一信息以及石油对世界的持续重要性感到鼓舞”。
双方对今年及以后的石油需求存在分歧。IEA 预计需求将在 2030 年达到峰值，而 OPEC 则预计需求不会达到峰值，预计会持续到 2045 年。
国际能源署表示，全球对石油的依赖正在减少，但仍然根深蒂固，供应中断仍可能导致“重大经济损害，并对人们的生活产生重大负面影响”。
国际能源署能源安全分析师罗南·格雷厄姆和研究员伊利亚斯·阿蒂吉周一在评论中表示，“需求下降的速度存在高度不确定性，导致石油公司在上游投资方面面临困难且存在商业风险的决策”。
欧佩克对此表示同意，但表示，国际能源署呼吁不要对石油和天然气进行新的投资，“极大地加剧了这种不确定性，这有可能导致重大能源混乱，而不是预期的能源安全。”
据路透社本周报道，IEA 和 OPEC 对需求的看法存在至少 16 年来的最大分歧 。OPEC+ 是 OPEC 和包括俄罗斯在内的盟友组成的组织，决定于 2022 年在评估石油市场状况时停止使用 IEA 的数据。
近 200 个国家在 12 月于迪拜举行的 COP28 气候峰会上一致认为，世界需要摆脱化石燃料。
IEA 2021 年表示，如果世界希望在本世纪中叶实现净零排放，投资者不应为新的石油、天然气和煤炭供应项目提供资金，这与之前呼吁加大投资的呼声有所不同。
OPEC表示，“PEC一贯重申其对石油市场稳定和供应安全的承诺，包括通过其成员国自费持有闲置产能，以防出现任何不可预见的全球石油供应中断。”
沙特阿拉伯是欧佩克事实上的领导者，几十年来一直是世界上唯一的大量备用石油产能的来源，在发生重大供应中断时，它可以作为全球供应的安全缓冲。近年来，欧佩克成员国阿拉伯联合酋长国也建立了闲置产能。
国际能源署认为，增加清洁能源是政府加强能源安全的最有效方式。
（Yousef Saba 在迪拜和 Alex Lawler 在伦敦报道；Jason Neely 和 Bernadette Baum 编辑）
主要图片（来源：路透社）