(Bloomberg) — Kamala Harris faces a problem in Washington County, Pennsylvania, where gas drilling rigs and well pads dot the rolling green farmland.
Ask Mickey Molinaro, an asphalt worker with a bushy beard and easy-going smile. Harris, in her last White House run, called for a ban on fracing, before reversing her stance this year. And fracing helped Molinaro survive the Great Recession.
The oil and gas extraction process triggered an economic boom in southwestern Pennsylvania, bringing him steady work paving access roads for energy companies. A former Donald Trump voter, Molinaro, 50, says he’s undecided about the upcoming election, put off by the ex-president’s personality. But Harris’ energy policies push him away.
“Energy is a big deal here,” Molinaro said, leaning against his truck, tar coating his jeans. “Harris supports the Green New Deal and that kind of stuff. She runs on a platform that’s anti-fossil fuel.”
To win in this highly competitive battleground state, Harris will have to overcome that baggage. No matter that her campaign insists she doesn’t want to ban fracing. Harris has not yet spelled out how she would treat the oil and gas industry should she win the presidency, and in the absence of a new approach the old one could be costing her votes.
Picking the state’s popular Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, as her running mate could have helped. He has staked out a middle ground on fracing, requiring companies to disclose the chemicals they use in the process but rejecting calls to ban it. Instead, Harris chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who pushed through a climate law forcing his state to get all its electricity from carbon-free sources by 2040.
“She really needs to explain what her point of view is, what her plan and direction would be,” said Jeff Nobers, executive director of the Builders Guild of Western Pennsylvania, many of whose members work in the energy industry. “My question to her is what has changed that makes you say you don’t support a ban on fracing, because fracing hasn’t changed.”
Analysts consider winning Pennsylvania a necessity for Harris, and it won’t be easy. President Joe Biden took the state in 2020 by less than 81,000 votes out of nearly 7 million cast. Trump won it in 2016 by an even slimmer margin — just over 44,000 votes. Trump currently holds less than a 1-point lead in the state, according to an average of several polls calculated by RealClear Polling.
Washington County, just southwest of Pittsburgh, sits atop the Marcellus shale formation, which has turned Pennsylvania into the nation’s second-largest producer of natural gas. The county reliably picked Democratic presidential candidates until it flipped in 2008, when it began backing Republicans, giving Trump 61% of the vote in 2020. Much of southwestern Pennsylvania underwent a similar shift, and fracing played a role, said Berwood A. Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College.
“The anti-fracing position Democrats were taking ran counter to some of the best economic news in those counties in a long time,” Yost said.
During her short-lived 2019 presidential campaign, Harris called for a fracing ban and pitched a $10 trillion climate plan that sought 100% carbon-neutral electricity by 2030. Her proposal would have put a price on carbon emissions and halted new fossil-fuel leases on public lands while phasing out existing ones. Trump now attacks those positions in campaign rallies and ads.
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“Remember, Pennsylvania, I said it: she wants no fracing. She’s on tape,” Trump said at a campaign rally in Minnesota late last month. “The beautiful thing about modern technology is when you say something, you’re screwed if it’s bad.”
In response, the Harris campaign pointed to Harris’ record as vice president, which includes casting the tie-breaking vote on Biden’s signature climate law. That law, the campaign said, helped trigger a manufacturing boom that has created 300,000 jobs in the energy sector.
“Vice President Harris is focused on a future where all Americans have clean air, clean water, and affordable, reliable energy while Trump’s lies are an obvious attempt to distract from his own plans to enrich oil and gas executive at the expense of the middle class,” the campaign said.
Pennsylvanians’ views on energy could determine the balance of the US Senate as well, now narrowly controlled by Democrats. Republican businessman Dave McCormick, who is challenging Democratic Senator Bob Casey, made a recent appearance at a Warren County well pad, accusing Casey and Harris of wanting to ban fossil fuels. Casey, however, says he supports fracing.
“The people of our state know my position on that issue,” Casey said in an interview. “We’ve supported it my whole time in the Senate, have been a strong advocate for it. It’s important for our state.”
Public support for fracing in Pennsylvania is not uniform. A 2020 survey conducted by YouGov found support evenly split, though Pennsylvanians who live in rural areas or identify as Republican were more likely to back it.
Lois Bower-Bjornson began giving tours of Washington County’s fracing sites after gas wells started appearing near her home in Scenery Hill, where she moved from Pittsburgh to give her growing family room to roam. She considers fracing a threat to groundwater and public health.
“We have a cancer crisis here in southwestern Pennsylvania,” said Bower-Bjornson, 57, as she drove down a country lane dotted with signs directing well traffic a keep a 25 mile per hour speed limit, while lawn signs read “Protect our kids: expand fracing setbacks.” She concedes a fracing ban is unlikely but wants the state to require a bigger buffer zone between gas wells and buildings or water wells – 2,500 feet, rather than the current 500. She supports Harris and says she won’t vote for anyone who says “drill, baby, drill.”
It’s not impossible for Harris to pick up support among people whose jobs are tied to the gas industry, but it may require striking a careful balance.
“I do believe she will compromise,” said Frank Gray, a 60-year-old steamfitter from Butler, north of Pittsburgh.
Speaking at the training center of the Steamfitters Local 449, which represents workers across the state’s energy supply chain, Gray said he found some of her past stances on energy “upsetting” but planned to vote for her anyway. “In general, I do think she has good ideas,” he said.
The topic has complicated Harris’ campaign in a state where elections are won on the margins, said Christopher Borick, a political science professor at Allentown’s Muhlenberg College.
“The vice president’s positions on the issue certainly makes a pitch to Pennsylvanians a little more difficult than Biden,” he said. “She has opened herself up to more direct attacks than Biden ever did.”
