短期内，供应过剩和地缘政治因素正在推高油价，但未来其他因素将影响能源成本。

Rystad Energy首席经济学家Claudio Galimberti在2月19日Rystad分析师于休斯顿举行的简报会上表示，供应过剩是当前价格的一个因素，但“结构性差异”将驱动长期价格。

“毫无疑问，我们正经历一段供应过剩的时期，不仅是石油，可能还有液化天然气，太阳能肯定也是如此，”他说。

他表示，目前市场上的过剩供应量约为每天 250 万桶，这与欧佩克+去年 4 月重新投放市场的石油量大致相同。

“这是我们目前处于供应过剩市场的最重要原因，”他说。

他表示，在过去十年左右的时间里，欧佩克+降低了市场波动性。

“你可以争论它们对市场的影响是良性还是有害。我不做评判。我只想说，如果没有欧佩克，油价波动会更大，”加林贝蒂说道。

他还补充说，伊朗、委内瑞拉、霍尔木兹海峡以及俄乌战争都存在地缘政治风险，可能会推高油价。

他概述了伊朗原油未来供应的五种情景，美国总统特朗普正在权衡各种选项，从外交手段到推翻伊朗政权：达成新的核协议，可能导致油价小幅下跌约 5 美元/桶；出现务实的现任领导人，可能引发油价大幅上涨 10 美元以上，之后才会回落；美国进行有限的打击，可能导致油价短暂飙升 5 至 10 美元；出现对抗性的继任者，可能导致油价持续上涨约 15 美元，之后才会部分回落；以及发生内乱，可能导致油价无序飙升 15 美元以上。

他表示，未来 15 年，该行业需要高达 8 万亿美元的投资，并特别呼吁对页岩油气和深水油气进行投资。

“页岩气将具有很强的韧性，”他说道，“而且将成为重要的供应来源。” “我们已经看到页岩气，尤其是在美国，在生产力和效率方面取得了长足的增长，这让我们相信，页岩气在可预见的未来将继续蓬勃发展。”

他还表示，深水油气生产仍将十分重要，特别是巴西和圭亚那。“它们的产量将继续增长，并将在20世纪30年代初达到深水油气供应峰值，”他说。

从长远来看，加林贝蒂认为，两个超级大国对能源系统持有“非常不同的看法”，这将导致能源系统出现分歧，并对世界其他地区产生影响。

他说，中国正在大力投资可再生能源和电气化，而美国则在加倍投入石油和天然气。

“事实上，世界其他地区将介于这两者之间，而且基本上，根据联盟关系，它们的能源系统可能会受到地缘政治的影响，这是我们可能30年来都没有见过的情况，”他说。

二叠纪-加西尔未来

Rystad北美油气研究主管Jai Singh表示， 2026年还不到两个月，围绕石油和天然气价格的说法已经发生了好几次变化。

需求低于预期。他表示，冬季气温高于预期，导致供暖需求下降；金山口液化天然气项目延期；以及数据中心人工智能处理相关的预期需求增长未能按计划实现。所有这些因素，再加上关税相关的难题，共同导致了价格前景的变化。

“当然，无论宏观形势如何，行业总会找到解决办法，”他说。

他表示，与可能根据价格增减钻机数量的其他页岩气盆地相比，二叠纪盆地对价格波动的反应较小。例如，整合正在提高水平井布置、水平井长度以及天然气收集和处理方面的效率。

随着行业运营的不断优化，二叠纪盆地的商业模式也发生了变化。“页岩油行业已经从增长型行业转变为现金牛行业。以股息和股票回购的形式返还现金的能力，才是投资的关键所在。”辛格说道。

在投资方面，二叠纪盆地的运营商正在考虑未来的天然气外输能力。

该地区的气油比正在上升。“这是湿气。油井越老，产出的天然气含量就越高。随着二叠纪盆地地层老化，生产井的产气量会越来越高。2015年开采的油井现在的产气量比2020年开采的油井要高，而且随着时间的推移，产气量只会越来越高。”他说道。

与此同时，盆地内含油量最高的区域已被开采殆尽，这意味着石油行业正将更多精力投入到含气量较高的地层中。他表示，即使在油价低迷的情况下，含气量较高的地层仍然具有经济可行性。

为了应对不断增长的天然气产量，运营商正在批准天然气加工和管道项目。

随着页岩油生产的发展，重要的是不要轻易否定页岩油的潜力。“关于页岩油，我们不应该想当然地认为——‘完了，页岩油已经没落了。我们不可能在页岩油中找到新的资源。它已经被开采殆尽了。’——这始终是一个错误的假设。”辛格说道，“事实上，目前有很多有趣的勘探项目正在进行，新的区域也在不断涌现；新的油气藏可能会出现，无论是在现有地层下方的新层位，还是在尚未勘探的区域。”

瓦卡穆尔塔页岩产量增长

Rystad公司页岩研究高级分析师安德烈斯·维拉罗埃尔表示，在阿根廷，瓦卡穆埃尔塔页岩的生产正在取代传统的页岩生产，但那里的页岩井钻探成本很高。

十年前，瓦卡穆尔塔油田的石油产量占全国总产量的不到10%。他表示，到2025年，该油田的产量将占总产量的65%，约为每日60万桶，而传统石油产量在过去20年中有所下降。

“传统油气产量一直在下降，我们预计不会再回升。我们认为瓦卡穆尔塔油田将主要抵消这种下降趋势，因为该地区最大的运营商，即国家石油公司YPF和第二大生产商Vista Energy，实际上已经出售了他们的传统油气资产，以便将所有资源投入到瓦卡穆尔塔油田的开发中，”维拉罗埃尔说道。

他说，尽管井的设计相似，但在瓦卡穆尔塔钻一口井的成本几乎是二叠纪盆地钻一口井的两倍。“它们的采砂量差不多，水平井的长度也和二叠纪盆地的差不多，等等。所以真正的区别在于那里的服务成本要高得多，”他说道，并补充道，“盈亏平衡点差不多。”

他说：“钻井成本更高，但（瓦卡穆尔塔）油井的平均产量实际上高于二叠纪盆地和特拉华州最好的油井。”

瓦卡穆尔塔页岩油田的开发始于核心区域，如今北部区域也正在崛起。维拉罗埃尔表示，虽然北部区域的开采活动尚不活跃，但那里的一些页岩油井却是世界上产量最高的油井之一。

In the short term, oversupply and geopolitics are driving oil prices, but other factors will affect energy costs in the future.

Oversupply is a factor in current pricing, but “structural divergence” will drive longer-term pricing, Claudio Galimberti, Rystad Energy’s chief economist, said during a 19 February briefing by Rystad analysts in Houston.

“There is probably little doubt that we are going through a period of oversupply, not just in oil, but probably in LNG, definitely in solar,” he said.

The current oversupply in the market is about 2.5 million BOPD, he said, which is about the amount OPEC+ brought back into the market last April.

“This is the single most important reason why we are in an oversupplied market right now,” he said.

For about the past decade, he said, OPEC+ has reduced market volatility.

“You may argue whether or not they had a benign or not so benign effect on the market. I refrain from making judgments. What I say is that without OPEC, the volatility in the price would've been much higher,” Galimberti said.

Iran, Venezuela, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Russia-Ukraine war offer geopolitical risks that could add a premium to oil prices, he added.

He outlined five scenarios for future Iranian crude supply as US President Trump weighs options ranging from diplomacy to efforts to topple the regime: a new nuclear deal, which could put modest downside of about $5/bbl on prices; a pragmatic successor to the current leadership, which could trigger a sharp upside of more than $10 before easing; limited US strikes, which could cause a short-lived spike of $5–$10; a confrontational successor, which could result in a sustained upside of about $15 before partial pullback; and civil unrest, which could drive a disorderly price surge of more than $15.

The industry needs a “mind-boggling $8 trillion” in investments over the next 15 years, he said, calling specifically for investment into shale and deepwater.

“Shale is going to be resilient” and a “major source of supply,” he said. “We have seen a lot of growth, specifically here in the United States, in terms of productivity and efficiency, and this leads us to believe that shale will be able to continue to prosper in the foreseeable future.”

Deepwater production will also remain important, specifically Brazil and Guyana, he said. “They will continue to grow, and they will reach peak deepwater supply in the early ‘30s,” he said.

Over the long term, Galimberti believes there will be a divergence in the energy system driven by two superpowers who have “very, very different views” on the systems, which has implications for the rest of the world.

China is investing heavily in renewables and electrification, while the US is doubling down on oil and gas, he said.

“The rest of the world, as a matter of fact, will fall between these two, and basically, based on the alliances, their energy system may be affected by geopolitics, which is something that we haven't seen for probably 30 years,” he said.

Permian’s Gassier Future

2026 isn’t even 2 months old, and narratives around oil and gas prices have already shifted several times, Jai Singh, Rystad’s head of oil and gas research for North America, said.

Demand fell short of expectations. A warmer-than-expected winter lessened heating demand, Golden Pass LNG was delayed, and the expected rise in demand related to artificial intelligence processing in data centers didn’t materialize on schedule, he said. That all combined with tariff-related struggles to create changing outlooks on pricing, he said.

“Of course, the industry kind of just figures it out, no matter what the macro situation,” he said.

The Permian Basin, specifically, is less responsive to price swings than the other shale basins which may shed or add rigs depending on prices, he said. For example, consolidation is leading to efficiencies in terms of lateral placement, length of laterals, and gas gathering and processing.

As the industry has fine-tuned its operations, the business model in the Permian has changed. “The shale industry flipped from a growth industry to a cash cow industry. The ability to return cash in the form of dividends and buybacks is really key to the investment proposition,” Singh said.

When it comes to investing, Permian operators are thinking about future gas takeaway capacity.

The play’s gas-to-oil ratio is rising. “This is wet gas. The older the well, the gassier the production. As the Permian ages, the production from producing wells gets gassier. The 2015 vintage well is gassier today than the 2020 well, and over time it's just going to get gassier,” he said.

At the same time, the oiliest places within the basin have been drilled, which means the industry is getting more into the gassier formations. Even in a weak oil price environment, gassier zones can still be economically viable, he said.

To cope with the increasing gas production, operators are approving gas processing and pipeline projects.

And as shale production evolves, it’s important not to write the shale plays off. “One of the things that we don't want to assume about shale–it's always a bad assumption–is to say, ‘Oh, it's over. We're not going to find new things in shale. It's all been picked over.’ Well, the reality is, there's lots of interesting delineation programs, and new areas; new plays can emerge, whether it's a new zone underneath existing formations or it's in areas that haven't been explored yet,” Singh said.

Vaca Muerta Shale Output Growing

In Argentina, shale production from the Vaca Muerta is replacing conventional production, yet shale wells there are expensive to drill, Andres Villarroel, Rystad’s senior analyst for shale research, said.

A decade ago, Vaca Muerta accounted for less than 10% of the country’s oil production. By 2025, it contributed 65% of total output, roughly 600,000 BOPD, while conventional production has dropped over the past 20 years, he said.

“Conventionals have been declining, and we don't expect those to ramp up again. We think that Vaca Muerta is going to offset that decline mostly because the largest operators there, YPF, which is the national oil company, and Vista Energy, the second-largest producer, have actually sold their conventional assets just to put all the resources into developing Vaca Muerta,” Villarroel said.

Drilling a well in Vaca Muerta costs almost twice as much as drilling one in the Permian Basin, despite the similarity in well designs, he said. “They pump a similar amount of sand, they have lateral lengths that are similar to those of the Permian, and so on. So it's just really that the services over there are much more expensive,” he said, adding, “The breakeven levels are similar.”

Drilling costs are higher, yet “the average productivity of the (Vaca Muerta) wells is actually above the best-in-class Permian wells, Delaware wells,” he said.

While development of the Vaca Muerta started in the core hub, a north hub is emerging. Villarroel said that while there’s not yet a lot of activity in the north hub, some of the shale wells there are among the most productive in the world.