石油市场仍在继续像过山车一样波动。

上个月，我们提出这样的观点：布伦特原油价格将保持在 60 美元/桶以上，并随着第二季度的到来回升至 70 美元/桶。

此外，我们指出，从上行角度来看，关税问题的有利解决将推动布伦特原油价格升至每桶 75 美元，WTI 原油价格升至每桶 70 美元；从下行角度来看，贸易战升级可能导致布伦特原油价格跌破每桶 50 美元，OPEC+ 成员国维持合作将变得更加困难，同时指出，出现这种下行趋势的可能性远低于 50%。

The roller coaster ride that is the oil market continues.

Last month, we put forward the view that the price of Brent crude would stay above $60/bbl and would move back toward $70/bbl as we progress through the second quarter.

Additionally, we stated that from an upside perspective, a favorable resolution of the tariffs would push the price of Brent crude to $75/bbl and the price of WTI to $70/bbl—and from a downside perspective, a spiraling trade war could lead to the price of Brent crude breaking below $50/bbl with it becoming more difficult for members of OPEC+ to maintain cooperation—while noting that the probability of this downside was substantially less the 50%.