2023 年 1 月
特别关注:水力压裂

通过预测分析优化套管优化压裂效率

在水力压裂作业设计中可以调整多个因素,以积极影响效率和成本。使用预测分析进行压力估计,重点关注套管优化,可以准确预测时间表、降低成本并最大限度地提高效率,同时最大限度地减少压裂作业设计的波动性。
卡梅伦·霍诺 / 通用压力泵

当与完井工程师谈论他们规划和执行水力压裂作业的优先事项时,效率和成本几乎是他们的首要考虑因素。这些方面是如此紧密地交织在一起和相互依赖,以至于如果不仔细考虑另一方面的影响,就无法操纵其中一个方面。在整体考虑压裂作业时,可以调整许多因素以最大限度地提高效率,同时降低成本。其中两个因素是泵送速率和压力。 

速率和压力是压裂作业的基础。钻井计划、套管设计、压裂马力需求和许多其他因素完全依赖于一口井的速率和压力要求,其目标是在整个压裂过程中达到最高速率,同时保持在最大允许表面压力之下。选择速率和压力的方式是为了提高作业效率并优化增产措施,以最大限度地提高油井的估计最终采收率。  

识别挑战。 那么,如果在压裂过程中无法达到其中一项要求,会发生什么情况呢?在大多数情况下,不足之处在于由于治疗压力高而导致治疗率降低。这些降低的费率会极大地影响压裂作业的效率,从而提高总体完工成本并延迟现金流回报。由于已经使用高性能减摩剂,并且对射孔或砂浆设计进行大幅改变的愿望有限,因此对抗高压和降低处理率的选择受到限制。如果预测未来的井会出现类似问题,则必须在规划过程的早期对完井设计的某些方面进行调整。  

分析方法。 为了帮助操作员解决这个问题,UniversalPressurePumping 开发了一种使用预测压力分析工具评估套管设计敏感性的方法。内部开发的工具能够输入计划的作业前参数,例如流体类型、射孔设计和裂缝梯度,从而生成预期处理的摘要。  

一些最重要的输出包括管道摩擦、最大可达到的速率和最大速率下的压力,所有这些都是逐级的。了解这些因素后,技术服务团队就有能力提出套管设计的变化,从而对油井的整体处理和压裂效率产生积极影响。通过为运营商提供广泛的详细信息,区分潜在的套管设计以及这些设计对其油井的影响,他们可以自信地选择最适合其所需油井处理、成本和效率的设计。 

使用预测压力分析工具时需要考虑许多因素。大多数输入都是设计常数,包括井长和深度、级数和处理量。不过,该工具还包括具有更大可变性的因素,例如射孔设计、估计平均瞬时关闭压力(ISDP)、摩擦减少百分比,当然还有套管设计。这些是技术服务团队在寻找最大化整个工作效率的方法时最常探索的变量。 

其中一些变量输入相对容易研究,并被识别为“训练常数”,这意味着尽管它们不是操作员提供的常数,例如测量的深度或级数,但仍然可以准确估计它们以进行压力分析。这些受教育的常数包括穿孔设计、平均 ISDP 和摩擦减少百分比。尽管射孔和簇设计的修改会影响速率和压力,但在没有剧烈变化的情况下,改变的产量对于整体处理而言可以忽略不计。估算平均 ISDP 是通过收集和分析类似区域中附近井的完井数据来进行的,然后根据可比较的信息进行预测。  

作业前水分析利用作业中使用的水和操作员可以使用的各种减摩剂,为分析提供准确的减摩百分比。随着潜在可变因素的数量现在减少到一个,套管优化现在可以成为焦点。套管设计的变化使井内的流量和压力波动范围最大。在分析套管重新设计以实现更有效的压裂时,需要考虑许多因素,包括单管柱与锥形管柱、套管尺寸和套管重量。  

表 1 显示了基于套管设计的井的最大流量和压力范围的一般示例。速率和压差的一些主要来源是管道摩擦和套管的最大压力额定值。改变套管尺寸,或在设计中引入锥形管柱,会对整个系统的总油管摩擦产生重大影响。管道摩擦力与表面压力直接相关,而表面压力又直接影响可实现的速率。整个设计中使用的外壳的重量也必须仔细考虑。增加管柱最薄弱部分的套管重量将提高整个设计的最大压力等级,从而提高油井的可实现产量。  

运营商可以根据其预期的完井设计、成本和套管可用性来考虑这种比较分析并探索选项。套管设计 B 和 C 在速率和压力分析方面产生相似的结果,但可能包括一系列无法​​获得或购买不经济的套管,表 1。 通过此分析,操作员还可能得出结论,如果增加套管尺寸,由于与原始设计相比摩擦压力降低,它们可能能够延长井侧的长度。操作员在设计套管柱时必须考虑这些类型的情况以及许多其他情况。预测压力分析工具在这里特别有用,因为它能够快速更改输入并快速对大量可行和不可行的选项进行分类。 

表 1. 套管设计比较

预测分析工具的易用性和准确性最近导致二叠纪的一家运营商向技术服务团队寻求有关压力分析确认的建议。在敏感地层中工作,以最高速率运行是优化裂缝复杂性的关键,客户希望确认当前的套管设计能够承受 20% 的速率增加,同时允许它们保持在最大压力额定值以下井。使用当前的井参数和预压裂输入,该团队能够确认该井确实可以以最佳速率进行压裂,同时在整个作业过程中保持在最大压力限制以下。  

图 1代表了实际作业处理的逐步分析,与压裂前预测压力分析并行,表明压裂作业符合预测分析,并且作业在没有任何速率或压力限制的情况下完成。操作员不仅能够提高增产速率以实现更有效的压裂,而且还具有更高效的压裂时间表的相关好处。通过将总停机时间减少 20%,操作员能够有效地提前生产,从而提前兑现。运营商还通过有效缩短在平台上的时间,同时以最佳方式完成工作,降低了相关成本,例如运营日费率和设备租赁。  

图 1. 压力与总深度

交付价值 

长远的博弈是效率和成本。如果操作员可以使用预测分析来开发或分析套管柱,使他们能够在保持顶部压力限制的情况下达到最大速率,那么压裂效率就会成为波动性较小的因素。由于更有效的套管设计,现在减少了延误和挫折的可能性,运营商可以更准确地制定运营时间表,并考虑完井过程的其他方面以节省成本。  

同样重要的是要认识到,计划外的速率降低不仅会影响压裂效率,而且还可能影响油井产量。验证射孔速度是否保持在最大 EUR 的目标范围内对于油井的成功至关重要。使用以套管优化为重点的预测压力分析工具,操作员可以准确预测时间表、成本和效率,同时知道他们选择的设计几乎不会出现波动。  

关于作者
卡梅伦·霍诺
通用压力泵
卡梅伦·霍诺 (Cameron Hornor) 是德克萨斯州米德兰通用压力泵公司的技术服务顾问。他的职业生涯始于在宾夕法尼亚州康奈尔斯维尔担任 Universal 现场工程师,随后于 2021 年调至米德兰担任高级现场工程师。Hornor 先生于 2017 年毕业于西弗吉尼亚大学,获得石油和天然气工程学士学位。
相关文章
原文链接/worldoil
January 2023
Special Focus: Hydraulic Fracturing

Casing optimization through predictive analysis optimizes frac efficiency

Several factors can be adjusted in a hydraulic fracturing job design to positively affect efficiency and cost. Using predictive analysis for pressure estimation, with a focus on casing optimization, creates the potential to accurately forecast timelines, reduce costs and maximize efficiencies with minimal frac job design volatility.
Cameron Hornor / Universal Pressure Pumping

When speaking with completion engineers about their priorities in planning and executing a hydraulic fracturing job, efficiency and cost sit near the top of their list. These aspects are so closely intertwined and co-dependent that one cannot be manipulated without carefully considering the effect of the other. When considering the frac job holistically, many factors can be tweaked to maximize efficiency while also reducing costs. Two of these factors are pumping rate and pressure. 

Rate and pressure are the foundation of a frac job. Drilling programs, casing designs, frac horsepower needs and many other factors rely solely on rate and pressure requirements for a well, with the objective that one can reach top rate throughout the frac while remaining under the maximum allowable surface pressure. Both rate and pressure are chosen in ways to enhance the efficiency of the job and optimize stimulation in efforts to maximize the estimated ultimate recovery of the well.  

Identifying the challenge. So, what happens when one of these requirements cannot be reached during the frac? In most cases, the shortfall comes in reduced treatment rates, due to high treatment pressures. These diminished rates can drastically affect the efficiency of the frac job, consequentially driving up overall completion costs and delaying cash flow returns. With a high-performance friction reducer already being used, and limited desire to make drastic changes to the perforation or sand slurry design, options are limited to counter high pressure and reduced treatment rates. If similar problems are predicted on future wells, an adjustment in some aspect of the completion design must be made early in the planning process.  

Analytical approach. To help operators solve this issue, Universal Pressure Pumping has developed a method for evaluating casing design sensitivity, using a predictive pressure analysis tool. The internally developed tool provides the ability to input planned pre-job parameters, such as fluid type, perforation design and fracture gradients, which generate a summary of the expected treatment.  

Some of the most important outputs include tubing friction, maximum achievable rate and pressure at maximum rate, all on a stage-by-stage basis. Knowing these factors, the tech services team has the ability to present variations in casing design that can positively affect the overall treatment and frac efficiency of the well. By providing operators with an extensive breakdown differentiating potential casing designs and the effects of those designs on their wells, they can confidently choose a design that best aligns with their desired well treatment, costs and efficiencies. 

Many factors are considered when using the predictive pressure analysis tool. Most inputs are design constants, including well lengths and depths, stage count and treatment volumes. The tool though, also includes factors that have more potential for variability like perforation design, estimated average instantaneous shutdown pressure (ISDP), percent friction reduction and, of course, casing design. These are the variables that are explored most by the technical services team when looking at ways to maximize rate throughout a job. 

A few of these variable inputs are relatively easy to investigate and are identified as “educated constants,” meaning that though they are not operator-provided constants, like measured depth or stage count, they still could be accurately estimated for the pressure analysis. These educated constants include perforation design, average ISDP and percent friction reduction. Although modification in perforation and cluster design influence rate and pressure, without a drastic change, the alterations yield is negligible to overall treatment. Estimating average ISDP is performed by gathering and analyzing completion data from nearby wells in similar plays, and then predictions are made based on comparable information.  

Pre-job water analysis utilizing water that will be used on the job and a variety of friction reducers at the operator’s disposal provides an accurate friction reduction percentage for the analysis. With the number of potential variable factors now reduced to one, casing optimization can now be the focus. Casing design changes provide the largest range in rate and pressure fluctuations from the well. Many factors are taken into consideration when analyzing a casing redesign for a more effective frac, including single string vs. tapered string, casing size and casing weight.  

Table 1 illustrates a generalized example of the wide range of maximum rates and pressures of a well, based on its casing design. Some of the major sources of rate and pressure differences are tubing friction and the maximum pressure rating of the casing. Changing casing size, or introducing a tapered string to the design, has a significant effect on total tubing friction throughout the system. Tubing friction has a direct correlation to surface pressure, which in turn directly affects the achievable rate. Weight of the casing used throughout the design also must be closely considered. Increasing the casing weight of the weakest part of the string will up the maximum pressure rating of the total design, in turn increasing the achievable rate of the well.  

Operators can consider this comparative analysis and explore options, based on their anticipated completion design, cost and casing availability. Casing design B and C yield similar results in terms of rate and pressure analysis, but may include a string of casing that is unavailable or uneconomical to purchase, Table 1. Through this analysis, an operator also may conclude that if they increase casing size, they may be able to extend the length of well lateral, due to reduction in friction pressure when compared with the original design. These types of scenarios, and many others, must be taken into consideration by the operator when designing their casing string.  The predictive pressure analysis tool is particularly useful here, because of the ability to quickly change inputs and rapidly sort through the multitude of viable and nonviable options. 

Table 1. Casing design comparison

The ease and accuracy of the predictive analysis tool recently led a Permian-based operator to seek advice from the technical services team regarding pressure analysis confirmation. Working in a sensitive formation, where operating at top rate was key to optimizing fracture complexity, the customer wanted to confirm that the current casing design would be able to withstand a 20% increase in rate while allowing them to remain under the maximum pressure rating of the well. Using current well parameters and pre-frac inputs, the team was able to confirm that the well could, indeed, be fractured at optimum rates while staying below maximum pressure restraints throughout the entire job.  

Figure 1 represents a stage-by-stage analysis of the actual job treatment, paralleled with the pre-frac predictive pressure analysis, indicating the frac job held true to predictive analysis, and the job was completed without any rate or pressure limitations. Not only was the operator able to increase the rate of stimulation for a more effective frac, but there were associated benefits of a more efficient frac timeline. By decreasing the overall time on pad by 20%, the operator was able to effectively bring production forward, resulting in an earlier time to cash. The operator also decreased associated costs, such as operational day rates and equipment rentals, by effectively shortening their time on pad while optimally completing the job.  

Fig. 1. Pressure vs. total depth

VALUE DELIVERED 

The long game is efficiency and cost. If an operator can use predictive analysis to develop or analyze a casing string that allows them to reach maximum rates while remaining under top pressure restrictions, then frac efficiency becomes a less volatile factor. With the potential for delays and setbacks now reduced as a result of a more effective casing design, operators can more accurately develop operational timelines and look at other aspects of the completion process for cost savings.  

It is also important to recognize that an unplanned rate reduction not only affects frac efficiencies, but it also could affect well production. Verifying that perforation velocities remain in the target range for maximum EUR is imperative to the well’s success. Using the predictive pressure analysis tool with a focus on casing optimization allows operators to accurately forecast timelines, costs and efficiencies while knowing there will be little volatility in the design they choose.  

About the Authors
Cameron Hornor
Universal Pressure Pumping
Cameron Hornor is a technical services adviser for Universal Pressure Pumping in Midland, Texas. He began his career with Universal as a field engineer in Connellsville, Pa., before transferring to Midland in 2021 as a senior field engineer. Mr. Hornor graduated with a BS degree in petroleum and natural gas engineering from West Virginia University in 2017.
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