IEA：二叠纪盆地、巴肯盆地、伊格尔福德盆地液化天然气产量创历史新高

IEA 表示，美国和加拿大是非 OPEC+ 供应的最大推动者，二叠纪盆地、鹰福特页岩和巴肯页岩推动美国 4 月份 NGL 产量创历史新高。

帕特里克
麦吉
哈特能源

根据国际能源署 (IEA) 7 月石油市场报告，二叠纪盆地、鹰滩页岩和巴肯的伴生轻质油、致密油产量是 4 月份 NGL 产量创下 6.4 MMbbl/d 历史新高的主要推动力。

美国液化天然气产量巨大，位居全球第四大液体生产国。

报告称，2023年美国致密油产量增长78万桶/日，占美国原油增长的94%。美国液化天然气产量激增，导致丙烷价格降至与石化原料乙烷具有竞争力的水平。

报告中，持续的宏观经济逆风和制造业衰退加剧，导致总部位于巴黎的IEA今年首次修改了2023年的增长预期。全球石油需求目前预计将攀升 2.2 MMbbl/d，达到 102.1 MMbbl/d 的新纪录。

全球石油供应量升至 101.8 百万桶/日，但由于沙特阿拉伯减产 1 百万桶/日，预计本月将大幅下降。报告称，预计 2023 年下半年非 OPEC+ 石油产量将下降 10 万桶/日，尽管美国将为增长贡献 1.2 兆桶/日——超过非 OPEC+ 国家产量增长的 60%。

美国产量下降

报告称，美国和加拿大的产量以及季节性增加的生物燃料产量将 6 月份非 OPEC+ 供应量推至 50 兆桶/天。尽管其在非欧佩克+供应中所占份额，该报告预测美国产量将“急剧”放缓。国际能源署的调查结果基于达拉斯联邦储备银行的数据。

美国石油产量将放缓
（来源：国际能源署）

达拉斯联储高级商业经济学家加勒特戈尔丁表示，IEA、美国能源信息署和更广泛的市场开始意识到，尽管美国产量增加，但2023年下半年产量可能会下降。

戈尔丁表示，“由于年增长率较慢，可能有几个月的产量下降可能会让我们感到惊讶，而我们已经几年没有真正应对过这种情况了。”他解释说，产量增加是由于钻探量增加所致。 2022 年中期的活动——现在正在放缓。

他表示，国际能源署的报告触及了一个重要观点：油井成本下降了，但大宗商品价格也下降了。Golding 补充说，曾经超过 1,000 个 DUC 的大量供应已降至约 200 个或更少。

“其中一些井实际上已经很老了，其中一些可能永远不会完工，”他说。“因此，DUC 库存实际上为零。”

中国仍然是全球石油需求的最大推动力。报告称，中国将占全球需求增长的70%，这主要是因为其石化产品的使用。

原文链接/hartenergy

IEA: Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford Hit Record NGL Production

The U.S. and Canada were the biggest drivers of non-OPEC+ supply with the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford Shale and the Bakken drove U.S. NGL production to a record high in April, the IEA said.

Patrick
McGee
Hart Energy

Associated light, tight oil production in the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford Shale and Bakken was the main driver in NGL hitting a record high of 6.4 MMbbl/d in April, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) July Oil Market Report.

U.S. NGL production was so substantial, it ranked as the fourth largest liquids producer globally.

The report says that U.S. tight oil accounted for 780,000 bbl/d of 2023 gains and represented 94% of the growth in U.S. crude. The U.S. NGL production surge drove propane pricing down to a level competitive with petrochemical feedstock ethane.

In the report, persistent macroeconomic headwinds and a deepening manufacturing slump caused the Paris-based IEA to revise its 2023 growth estimate for the first time this year. Global oil demand is now expected to climb 2.2 MMbbl/d to a new record of 102.1 MMbbl/d.

World oil supply rose to 101.8 MMbbl/d, but is expected to fall sharply this month because of Saudi Arabia’s cuts of 1 MMbbl/d. Non-OPEC+ oil production is expected to fall by 100,000 bbl/d in the second half of 2023, even as the U.S. will contribute 1.2 MMbbl/d to growth — more than 60% of the non-OPEC+ gains, the report says.

U.S. production to decline

The U.S. and Canadian output—and seasonally higher biofuels production—pushed non-OPEC+ supply to 50 MMbbl/d in June, according to the report. Despite its share of non-OPEC+ supply, the report predicts U.S. output will slow “dramatically.” IEA based its findings on data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

U.S. Oil Production to Slow
(Source: IEA)

Garrett Golding, a senior business economist at the Dallas Fed, said IEA, the U.S. Energy Information Agency and the broader market are starting to realize that despite increased U.S. production, the second half of 2023 will likely see production declines.

“With the slower annual pace there could be some months here that may surprise us [with] declines that we haven’t really had to deal with for a few years now,” Golding said, explaining that the increase was from higher drilling activity in the middle of 2022—and that is slowing now.

He said the IEA report touched on an important point: well costs have come down, but commodity prices have come down, too. Golding added that the once hefty supply of more than 1,000 DUCs is down to about 200 or less.

“Some of those wells are actually quite old, and some of them might never get completed,” he said. “So, that DUC inventory is effectively zero.”

China continues to be the biggest driver of global oil demand. The report says the country will account for 70% of the increase in global demand, largely because of its petrochemical use.