脱碳

电气化的全球影响和挑战

此次更新重点介绍了为石油和天然气资产通电以及向偏远、服务不足的社区提供清洁能源所做的努力。但最大的问题依然存在:我们真的能在 2050 年实现净零排放吗?

行业发展的技术思路理念。
资料来源:Natali Mis/Getty Images。

人们普遍认为电气化是实现脱碳的关键。要在全球范围内取得成功,需要应对一系列复杂的挑战,包括能源结构多样化、技术开发、基础设施投资、政策支持和区域规划等。

国际能源署 (IEA) 的 2050 年净零排放情景表明,到 2030 年,电力应占最终能源消耗的近 30%,高于 2023 年预计的 20%,从而实现净零排放。

到 2050 年,净零排放能实现吗?SPE 总裁 Olivier Houzé 在本月的视频播客和专栏中深入探讨了 IEA 的三种主要能源转型情景。他的结论包括:“2050 年以后,预计石油产量将在未来 20 年内下降约 50%,天然气产量将下降 25%。但大家都一致认为,没有人真正知道。”

以下更新概述了为石油和天然气资产电气化以及为偏远和服务不足的社区提供清洁能源解决方案所做的努力。

挪威海上的成功

使用可再生能源或燃烧天然气来为上游石油和天然气生产设施通电可减少 80% 以上的排放。

Rystad Energy 最近的分析强调,挪威目前处于领先地位,这要归功于其丰富的可再生资源和靠近这些资源的生产基地。挪威大陆架 (NCS) 上的钻井平台和其他资产的电气化已使二氧化碳排放量从 8.4 千克/桶油当量下降到 1.2 千克,电气化之前的排放量相比减少了 86%。

挪威的真正发电站是水力发电,拥有 1,500 多个水力发电站,通常每年发电量为 133 TWh,占该国总发电量的 96%。这种供应使得挪威许多海上设施向清洁能源的过渡比世界其他地区更为可行,尤其是对于 Troll A、Martin Linge 和 Johan Sverdrup 等岸上发电项目。截至 2 年前,挪威已有 7 个油田完全或部分实现岸上发电。

陆上电气化——利用清洁能源进行钻探

该行业的其他参与者则在努力应对不太有利的情况,面临着诸如设施远离可再生能源(可再生能源可能有限)以及电网基础设施不足等障碍。

SPE 218649于 4 月在阿曼石油与能源展的 SPE 大会上发表,讨论了在钻井作业中使用电力。作者指出,钻井平台通常每天消耗 6 至 50 兆瓦时的能源,平均约为 20 兆瓦时。柴油钻井平台每兆瓦时排放约 1.0 公吨二氧化碳当量,每天总计约 20 公吨二氧化碳当量。相比之下,电网供电钻井平台每兆瓦时排放约 0.39 公吨二氧化碳当量,不到柴油钻井平台排放量的一半。

论文中的一个例子说明了渐进式变化如何降低排放强度,即使解决方案是朝着“清洁”能源迈出的一步,尽管尚未完全符合理想的清洁能源标准。

将北达科他州的钻井作业与德克萨斯州的钻井作业进行比较,北达科他州 57% 的发电量使用煤炭,而德克萨斯州只有 18% 的发电量使用煤炭,作者指出“与电网相连的北达科他州钻井平台的排放强度高于德克萨斯州电气化钻井平台的排放强度,但仍明显低于柴油发电机驱动的平均钻井平台的排放强度,后者约为 1.0 公吨二氧化碳当量/兆瓦时。”

NCS 石油和天然气资产与挪威水力发电网的距离很近,有利于这些资产的电气化。Johan Sverdrup 距离海岸约 112 英里。相比之下,美国墨西哥湾资产距离海岸 500 英尺至 350 英里甚至更远。来源:Rystad Energy。
NCS 石油和天然气资产与挪威水力发电网的距离很近,有利于这些资产的电气化。Johan Sverdrup 距离海岸约 112 英里。相比之下,美国墨西哥湾资产距离海岸 500 英尺至 350 英里甚至更远。
来源:Rystad Energy。

电气化的更广泛的影响和挑战

电气化的前期成本非常高,尤其是对于电网接入有限的偏远地区的企业而言。这一挑战不仅影响石油和天然气行业,还影响向服务不足的社区提供电力的努力。

8 月份在 SPE 尼日利亚年度国际会议和展览会上发表的一篇论文 ( SPE 221709 ) 研究了太阳能微电网系统对撒哈拉以南非洲农村社区电气化的可行性和影响,该地区约有 6 亿人缺电,约 6.9 亿人无法使用清洁炉灶。作者写道:“在尼日利亚,约 45% 的人口(超过 9000 万人)没有用上电,其中 60% 居住在农村地区。尼日利亚也是全球人均发电率最低的国家之一,电网装机容量约为 13,000 兆瓦,但平均实际发电量仅为 4,000 兆瓦。”

作者附上了一张表格,其中显示了 87.5 kWp(千瓦峰值)太阳能发电系统的成本汇总,包括资本、安装成本和其他规格。他们计算出,该系统预计使用寿命为 25 年,其平准化电力成本为 47.1 美分/千瓦时,约为美国住宅太阳能系统的六倍,大约是美国平均住宅公用事业费率 16 美分/千瓦时的三倍(尽管各州和地区之间存在很大差异)。

最终,实现更加电气化和可持续的能源未来取决于多种因素:战略投资、强大的基础设施、可获得的能源资源、主要利益相关者之间的合作、持续的技术创新以及支持性政策框架。

原文链接/JPT
Decarbonization

Global Implications and Challenges of Electrification

This update highlights efforts to electrify oil and gas assets and deliver clean energy to remote, underserved communities. But the big question remains: Can we really achieve net zero emissions by 2050?

The concept of technological ideas for the development of the industry.
Source: Natali Mis/Getty Images.

Electrification is widely seen as crucial for decarbonization. To be successful on a global scale, a mix of complex challenges require coordinated efforts across the diversification of the energy mix, technology development, infrastructure investment, policy support, and regional planning.

The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario suggests electricity should account for nearly 30% of final energy consumption by 2030, up from an estimated 20% in 2023, to progress to net zero.

Are net zero emissions achievable by 2050? SPE President Olivier Houzé delves into the IEA’s three main energy transition scenarios in this month’s vodcast and column. Among his conclusions: “Beyond 2050, the anticipation is a decline of around 50% for oil and 25% for gas in the following 20 years. The one thing everybody agrees on is that no one really knows.”

The following updates offer a glimpse at efforts to electrify oil and gas assets and bring clean energy solutions to remote and underserved communities.

Norway’s Offshore Success

Electrifying upstream oil and gas production facilities using renewable energy or otherwise flared natural gas could reduce emissions by more than 80%.

Rystad Energy’s recent analysis highlighted Norway as currently leading the way, thanks to its wealth of renewable resources and production sites’ proximity to them. Electrification of rigs and other assets on Norway’s Continental Shelf (NCS) has resulted in a drop from 8.4 kg to 1.2 kg CO2/BOE—an 86% reduction in the same assets’ emissions before electrification.

Norway’s literal powerhouse is hydroelectric energy, tallying more than 1,500 hydropower plants, normally producing 133 TWh annually, or 96% of the country’s total power production. This supply has made the transition of many of its offshore facilities to cleaner energy more feasible than in other regions of the world, particularly for power-from-shore projects such as Troll A, Martin Linge, and Johan Sverdrup. As of 2 years ago, Norway had seven fields fully or partially electrified from shore.

Onshore Electrification—Drilling With Clean(er) Energy

Other players in the industry grapple with less advantageous scenarios, facing hurdles such as facilities located far from renewable energy sources, which may be limited, and inadequate grid infrastructure.

SPE 218649, presented at the SPE Conference at Oman Petroleum & Energy Show in April, discussed using electrical utility power in drilling operations. The authors noted that a drilling rig typically consumes 6 to 50 MWh of energy per day, averaging around 20 MWh. Diesel-powered rigs emit about 1.0 metric tonne of CO2e/MWh, totaling roughly 20 metric tonnes of CO2e per day. In contrast, grid-powered rigs emit about 0.39 metric tonnes of CO2e/MWh, less than half the emissions of diesel-powered rigs.

An example from the paper illustrates how incremental changes can reduce emissions intensity, even when the solution is a step toward “cleaner” energy, though not yet fully aligned with ideal clean energy standards.

Comparing drilling operations in North Dakota, where 57% of the state’s power generation uses coal, to Texas where 18% uses coal, the authors noted that the “emissions intensity on a North Dakota rig tied to the grid is higher than that of an electrified rig working in Texas but is still notably lower than the intensity of an average drilling rig powered by a diesel generator, which is approximately 1.0 metric tonnes CO2e/MWh.”

The proximity of NCS oil and gas assets to Norway’s hydroelectric-powered grid is advantageous to electrification of those assets. Johan Sverdrup is approximately 112 miles offshore. In comparison, US Gulf of Mexico assets range from 500 ft to 350 or more miles offshore. Source: Rystad Energy.
The proximity of NCS oil and gas assets to Norway’s hydroelectric-powered grid is advantageous to electrification of those assets. Johan Sverdrup is approximately 112 miles offshore. In comparison, US Gulf of Mexico assets range from 500 ft to 350 or more miles offshore.
Source: Rystad Energy.

Broader Implications and Challenges of Electrification

The upfront costs of electrification are substantial, especially for entities in remote areas with limited grid access. This challenge affects not only the oil and gas industry but also efforts to bring electricity to underserved communities.

A paper presented at the SPE Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition in August (SPE 221709) studied the viability and impact of solar mini-grid systems for electrification of rural communities in Sub-Saharan Africa where approximately 600 million people lack electricity, and around 690 million lack access to clean cooking stoves. The authors wrote, “In Nigeria, about 45% of the population, more than 90 million people, do not have electricity, with 60% of these individuals residing in rural areas. Nigeria also has one of the lowest per capita electricity generation rates globally, with an installed grid-connected capacity of about 13,000 MW but an average actual output of just 4,000 MW.”

The authors included a table showing a cost summary including capital, the cost of installation, and other specifications for an 87.5‑kWp (kilowatt peak) solar-power system. They calculated a levelized cost of electricity of 47.1 cents/kWh over the system’s estimated lifetime of 25 years—approximately six times that of a US residential solar system and roughly three times more than an average US residential utility rate of 16 cents/kWh (although this varies significantly by state and region).

In the end, achieving a more electrified and sustainable energy future depends on a combination of factors: strategic investment, robust infrastructure, accessible energy resources, collaboration among key stakeholders, ongoing technological innovation, and supportive policy frameworks.