强劲的全球需求正在推动海上石油和天然气行业的复苏，该行业有望在未来两年内实现十年来的最大增长。

Rystad Energy 的一份新报告预计，到 2025 年，至少 2140 亿美元的新投资资金将流入海上绿地项目。

这家总部位于奥斯陆的能源研究公司表示，如果今年和明年的年度资本支出突破1000亿美元，这将是自2012年和2013年以来连续两年首次出现这种情况。

在所有新支出中，Rystad 预计从现在到 2024 年，海上石油和天然气产量将占全球产量的 68%，这比 2015 年至 2018 年期间的 40% 份额大幅上升。

该公司补充说，未来两年，离岸项目将占所有批准工作的一半左右，而 2015 年至 2018 年这一比例约为 29%。Rystad 使用这个比较期是因为它早于 COVID-19 大流行对该行业的影响。

资料来源：雷斯塔能源。

Rystad Energy 供应链研究主管 Audun Martinsen 在一份声明中表示，“海上石油和天然气生产不会转移到任何地方，该行业现在可能比以往任何时候都更加重要。”

他继续说道：“作为一种低碳密集型碳氢化合物开采方法，随着全球超级大国在推进能源转型的同时努力减少碳足迹，离岸运营商和服务公司应该会在未来几年中获得意外之财。”

对于服务提供商而言，更高的活动水平将意味着供应链支出每年增加 16%，达到 210 亿美元。雷斯塔强调，这将标志着离岸行业又一个十年高增长数字。

Rystad 分析中的一些区域发现：

• 中东将首次在海上项目上的支出超过所有其他地区。Rystad 表示，该地区的离岸资本支出将从 2023 年的 330 亿美元增至 2025 年的 410 亿美元。这一增长将由沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔和阿联酋的“庞大项目”带动。
• 在欧洲，英国今年的离岸支出将达到 70 亿美元，同比增长 30%。挪威的离岸投资组合预计将吸收超过 210 亿美元，增长 22%。
• 南美洲的预计支出与欧洲主要国家相当。巴西的海上油田今年将消耗 230 亿美元，而圭亚那蓬勃发展的 Staebrok 区块将吸引约 70 亿美元的投资。Rystad 表示，尽管两国都在开展活动，包括为巴西国家石油公司订购了 16 艘 FPSO，但 2025 年后南美海上作业的资本支出将放缓。
• 在北美，运营商将投资高达 175 亿美元，其中 73 亿美元计划用于支持墨西哥的离岸部门。

资料来源：雷斯塔能源。

Strong global demand is driving a revival of the offshore oil and gas industry which is on pace to see its biggest growth in a decade over the next 2 years.

This is according to a new report from Rystad Energy that estimates at least $214 billion of new investment money will flow into offshore greenfield projects by 2025.

The Oslo-based energy research firm said if annual capex tops $100 billion this year and next, it will mark the first time that has happened 2 years in a row since 2012 and 2013.

Amid all the new spending, Rystad is expecting offshore oil and gas to represent 68% of global production from now to 2024, which is up sharply from a 40% share held between 2015–2018.

The firm added that offshore projects will account for about half of all sanctioned work over the next 2 years which compares to about 29% from 2015–2018. This comparison period was used by Rystad since it predates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the industry.

Source: Rystad Energy.

“Offshore oil and gas production isn’t going anywhere, and the sector matters now possibly more than ever," Audun Martinsen, head of supply chain research for Rystad Energy, said in a statement.

He continued, "As one of the lower-carbon-intensive methods of extracting hydrocarbons, offshore operators and service companies should expect a windfall in the coming years as global superpowers try to reduce their carbon footprint while advancing the energy transition."

For service providers, the higher activity levels will translate into a 16% annual increase of $21 billion in supply chain spending. Rystad highlighted that this would mark another decade-high growth figure for the offshore sector.

Some of the regional findings from Rystad’s analysis:

• The Middle East will for the first time ever spend more on offshore projects than all other regions. Rystad said offshore capex in the region will swell from $33 billion in 2023 to $41 billion by 2025. The growth will be led by “mammoth projects” in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.
• In Europe, the UK will see $7 billion in offshore spending this year, a 30% year-over-year increase. Norway is expected to see its offshore portfolio absorb more than $21 billion, which is up by 22%.
• South America’s projected spending is comparable to that of the big European players. Brazil’s offshore fields will consume $23 billion this year while Guyana’s blossoming Staebrok block will see about $7 billion of investments. Despite the activity in both countries, including 16 FPSOs on order for Petrobras, Rystad said capital outlay for offshore work will slow in South America after 2025.
• In North America, operators will invest up to $17.5 billion while $7.3 billion is slated to support Mexico’s offshore sector.

Source: Rystad Energy.