Rystad Energy 专家表示，虽然由于油价疲软，陆上活动将会减少，但未来几个月减速的步伐可能会放缓。

由于当前的市场状况以及近期钻机和压裂船队数量的下降，水平钻井数量预计将下降 2%，而 2023 年完工量将同比增长 3%。

预计美国所有流域的现货市场服务价格都会下降。由于上季度活动减少，1,500 马力交流钻机的钻机费率有所下降。目前 1,500 马力交流电的现货钻机价格在每天 27,000 美元到每天 30,000 美元之间。全国钻机数量较 6 月份减少了 35 台，较第二季度减少了 67 台，自 2023 年初以来减少了 90 多台。此外，在 2023 年第二季度，活跃的压裂船队在这三个月内从 282 台减少到 265 台。

为了在市场日益枯竭的情况下改善石油和天然气供应，一些服务公司已将其钻机和设备从天然气转移到液体更丰富的盆地。此举改善了这些液体丰富盆地的供应并影响了价格。多家公司都出现了停产情况，其中天然气盆地受到的影响最为严重。市场疲软导致压裂价格下调。

因此，勘探与生产公司的目标是实现个位数产量增长，以赚取健康的利润、节省现金并最终提高股东回报。2023 年资本支出增长的推动因素是 2022 年最后一个季度锁定的合同成本扩张，而不是产量增长。Rystad Energy 预计 2023 年美国资本支出将增长 10%，油井成本从第三季度开始下降。

Rystad 还预测，美国所有盆地的钻井服务价格都将下降，较 2022 年第四季度的水平平均下降 10% 以上。钻机费率在一月份达到峰值，约为每天 35,000 美元，但此后已降至每天不足 30,000 美元。自 1 月份以来，管道、套管和其他油田管材的价格下跌了 17% 以上，预计还会进一步下跌。其他下降的利率包括定向钻井利率，服务公司正在为其船员寻找新家。美国的柴油价格也较 2022 年第二季度的峰值有所下降，但随着夏季驾驶季节的进展，价格预计将反弹。

总体而言，市场供需基本面依然强劲，但全球经济放缓的前景正在打压价格。经济放缓给纽约商交所 WTI 期货带来持续压力，进一步削弱了活动前景。Rystad Energy 预计 2023 年第四季度的活动将有所增加，因为服务成本对运营商更具吸引力，而且供应紧张导致能源价格稳定。

While onshore activity is set to decline due to the weakness in oil prices, it looks as though the pace of deceleration may slow down in the coming months, according to Rystad Energy experts.

Due to current market conditions and the recent drop in rig and frac fleet counts, horizontal drilling is set to decline by 2%, while completions increase by 3% year-over-year in 2023.

Spot market service prices are expected to fall across all U.S. basins. Due to the decline in activity last quarter, rig rates for 1,500 horsepower AC rigs have fallen. Current spot rig rates for 1,500 horsepower AC range between $27,000 per day and $30,000 per day. Rig counts across the country are down by 35 from June, 67 from the second quarter and by more than 90 since the beginning of 2023. Additionally, over the course of second quarter 2023, active frac fleets dropped from 282 to 265 in those three months.

In order to improve oil and gas supply in the face of this depleting market, some service companies have moved their rigs and equipment from gas to more liquid-rich basins. This move has improved supply and impacted prices in those liquid-rich basins. Deactivation occurred across various companies, with gas basins being the most heavily impacted. The weakness in the market has caused frac prices to be adjusted downward.

As a result, E&P companies are targeting single digit production growth to earn healthy margins, conserve cash and ultimately boost shareholder returns. Capex increases for 2023 are being driven by cost expansions from contracts locked in during the final quarter of 2022, rather than production growth. U.S. capex is expected to grow by 10% in 2023, according to Rystad Energy, with well costs beginning to decline from third quarter onward.

Rystad also predicts drilling service prices will fall across all U.S. basins, with an average decline of more than 10% from fourth quarter 2022 levels. Drilling rig rates peaked in January at around $35,000 per day, but has since come down to less than $30,000 per day. Prices for pipes, casings and other oil country tubular goods dropped by over 17% since January, with further declines expected. Among other declining rates are the directional drilling rates, with service companies searching for new homes for their crew. Diesel prices in the U.S. are also down from their second quarter 2022 peak, but prices are expected to rebound as the summer driving season progresses.

Overall, market supply and demand fundamentals still look strong, but prospects of a global economic slowdown are weighing on prices. The slowdown has put steady pressure on Nymex WTI futures, further dampening the activity outlook. Rystad Energy expects an uptick in activity in the fourth quarter 2023 as service costs become more attractive for operators and energy prices stabilize due to tightening supply.