与2020年一样，2021年已发现资源以俄罗斯少数大型发现为主，合计占总量32亿桶油当量（48%）。

在俄罗斯以外，2021 年的石油发现量处于至少 2008 年以来的最低水平（34 亿桶油当量）。当年最大的发现是位于俄罗斯陆上叶尼塞-哈坦加盆地的 Zinichev 油田 (VKB-1)，估计为 23 亿桶油当量（ 13tcf）。VKB 是 2021 年唯一一个估计 >500mmboe 的发现，而 2020 年有八个发现 >500mmboe。俄罗斯以外最大的发现被认为是埃尼在科特迪瓦近海的Baleine发现。

前沿勘探钻探跌至 Westwood 有记录以来的最低水平（自 2008 年以来），仅完成了 15 口前沿井，并且只有 1 口井获得了潜在的中等规模商业发现。新兴油气勘探主要以苏里南-圭亚那近海的上白垩统油气勘探为主，其中四项发现增加了约 10 亿亿吨的额外勘探。在更成熟、成熟的区域进行高冲击钻探，取得了 13 个潜在的商业发现和 43% 的商业成功率，然而，其中只有 7 个在钻后似乎>100mmboe。

72家公司参与了2021年钻探的74口高冲击井，其中38家公司只参与了单口井。最活跃的高影响力勘探公司是埃克森美孚（13 口井）、道达尔、马来西亚国家石油公司和壳牌公司（各 9 口井）。然而，俄罗斯石油公司 (Rosneft) 和英国石油公司 (BP) 是仅有的两家净交付量超过 10 亿桶油当量的公司，因为它们在俄罗斯发现了一些大型油田。雷普索尔和埃尼公司跌出了最活跃勘探者的名单，各只参与了三口高影响井。两家公司都有严格的净零目标。

2021年表明，人们对钻头高冲击勘探的兴趣并未明显丧失，但前沿勘探钻探的下降表明，该行业不太关心长期更新，而是专注于更快的回报。

2022 年钻探计划的展望表明，这种模式将在 2022 年继续下去，预计年内将完成 70 至 80 口高影响井，与 2020/21 年水平相似。

2022年的钻探热点将主要在南美洲，特别是苏里南-圭亚那盆地和巴西近海。墨西哥湾将成为美国和墨西哥近海的热点地区，预计加拿大东部近海的弗拉芒山口也将有关键油井。经过几年的平静之后，非洲预计将在奥兰治、里约穆尼、莫桑比克和拉穆盆地看到关键的前沿测试。西北欧应该会钻探约 10 口高影响井，数量与 2020 年相似，但远低于 2019 年钻探的 27 口高影响井。中东可能会在伊朗里海看到最大的勘探区。

到 2022 年，无风险预钻资源潜力（来自已钻探的井，或被认为是坚固井或可能井）的综合无风险预钻资源潜力估计约为 30 亿桶油当量，Westwood 估计在风险基础上约为 80 亿桶油当量。

因此，尽管经历了能源转型，勘探与生产行业迄今为止仍保持着高影响井数。这种情况是否会持续到 2022 年之后还是一个问题。2022 年勘探计划以 2020 年之前获得的许可证的承诺井为主。2023 年及以后情况可能会发生变化，因为当前的投资组合将被钻完，并且如果不因能源转型压力而更新面积。

Westwood 于 2021 年 12 月发布了旗舰报告《值得关注的伊韦尔斯》（ey Wells to Watch），并将于 2022 年 1 月发布《2021 年的成功与失败》。这些报告回顾了 2021 年最大的发现以及关键的失败。详细审查了值得关注的油井，并对油气藏、前景、风险以及成功或失败的影响进行了评论和分析。

在线阅读文章：https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/exploration/10012023/westwood-discoveries-at-lowest-level-outside-of-Russia-for-more-than-a-decade/

As in 2020, discovered resource in 2021 was dominated by a small number of large discoveries in Russia, which together accounted for 3.2bnboe (48%) of the total.

Outside Russia, discoveries in 2021 were at the lowest level (3.4bnboe) since at least 2008. The largest discovery of the year was at the Zinichev discovery (VKB-1) in the Yenisey-Khatanga Basin onshore Russia, estimated at 2.3bnboe (13tcf). VKB was the only discovery in 2021 estimated to be >500mmboe, compared to 2020 when eight discoveries >500mmboe were made. The largest discovery outside of Russia is considered to be Eni’s Baleine discovery offshore Cote d’Ivoire.

Frontier exploration drilling fell to the lowest level ever recorded by Westwood (since 2008) with only 15 frontier wells completing and only one making a potentially modest sized commercial discovery. Emerging play exploration was dominated by the Upper Cretaceous play offshore Suriname-Guyana where four discoveries added an additional estimated ~1bnbnoe. High impact drilling in more mature, established plays delivered 13 potentially commercial discoveries and a 43% commercial success rate, however, only seven of these appear to be >100mmboe post-drill.

72 companies participated in the 74 high impact wells drilled in 2021, with 38 companies participating in only a single well. The most active high impact explorers were Exxon (13 wells), Total, Petronas & Shell (nine wells each). Rosneft and BP were the only companies to deliver >1bnboe net, however, due to their exposure to some large discoveries in Russia. Repsol and Eni fell out of the list of most active explorers participating in only three high impact wells each. Both companies have stringent net zero targets.

2021 showed there was no obvious loss of appetite for high impact exploration at the drill-bit, but the decline in frontier exploration drilling shows that the industry is less concerned with long term renewal and is instead focused on quicker returns.

The outlook for 2022 drilling plans suggests this pattern will continue in 2022 with 70 – 80 high impact wells expected to complete in the year, a similar level to 2020/21.

Hot spots for drilling in 2022 will be mostly in South America, particularly in the Suriname-Guyana Basin and offshore Brazil. The Gulf of Mexico will be a hotspot, both offshore US and Mexico, and key wells are also expected in the Flemish Pass offshore Eastern Canada. After a quiet few years Africa is expected to see key frontier tests in the Orange, Rio Muni, Mozambique and Lamu basins. Northwest Europe should see ~10 high-impact wells drilled which is a similar number to 2020, but well down on the 27 high impact tests drilled in 2019. The Middle East may see the largest prospect drilled in the Iranian Caspian Sea.

The combined unrisked predrill resource potential (from wells either drilling, or considered firm or probable wells) in 2022 is estimated to be ~30bnboe which Westwood estimates as ~8bnboe on a risked basis.

So, despite the energy transition, the E&P sector has so far maintained the high impact well count. Whether this will continue beyond 2022 is the question. The 2022 exploration programme is dominated by commitment wells on licences acquired prior to 2020. Things may change in 2023 and beyond, as current portfolios are drilled out and if acreage is not renewed in response to energy transition pressures.

Westwood published its flagship ‘Key Wells to Watch’ report in December 2021 and will publish its ‘Hits and Misses of 2021’ in January 2022. The reports review the largest discoveries of 2021, as well as the key failures. The wells to watch are reviewed in detail, with commentary and analysis on the play, prospectivity, risks and implications of success or failure.

Read the article online at: https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/exploration/10012023/westwood-discoveries-at-lowest-level-outside-of-russia-for-more-than-a-decade/