伯恩斯坦:IP 为 1,000 桶/天的油井是“新常态”

据伯恩斯坦报道,2024 年,日产 1,000 桶油当量的油井占总钻井数量的比重将同比增长至 46%;到 2025 年,大多数油井可能将达到“千桶俱乐部”的门槛。


法国兴业银行集团的合资研究机构伯恩斯坦报告称,IP 值超过 1,000 桶油当量/天的油井数量(“千桶俱乐部”)每年都在增加,到 2025 年,此类油井可能成为大型生产商的大多数。

伯恩斯坦公司的鲍勃·布拉克特(Bob Brackett)在4月11日的一份报告中写道:“由于今年钻探的井数少于2023年(千口俱乐部井数量相似),千口俱乐部井在总钻探井中的占比今年再次上升至所有钻探井的46%。” 他表示,这与技术和运营方面的改进以及对“等级勘探”的抑制相一致。

伯恩斯坦推测,今年可能是“千家俱乐部”油井占大多数的开始。

布拉克特写道:“这是一场真正的技术革命——从‘页岩’初期的 5% 上升到十年左右的 50% 以上。”

最适合开采此类油井的州是德克萨斯州、新墨西哥州、北达科他州和宾夕法尼亚州,它们与相关盆地的储层相对应:二叠纪和鹰福特页岩;阿巴拉契亚;以及威利斯顿的巴肯。

[千井俱乐部排名靠前的州.jpg(幻灯片来源)]
2024年,德克萨斯州、新墨西哥州和北达科他州将拥有大多数“千井俱乐部”油井。  (来源:Enverus, Bernstein)

然而,寻找新的资源“仍然极其困难”,布拉克特写道。

俄克拉荷马州玛丽埃塔和阿德莫尔盆地的一些优质井表现良好,但在核心生产盆地之外钻探的井要少得多。

报道称,“千户俱乐部中的 UID-CON 和 Arkoma 油井产量也略有增加,以支持天然气需求。”

少数顶级公司控制着“千俱乐部油井”,其中约 75% 的 1,000 桶油当量/天的油井是由上市的 E&P 公司钻探的。

在伯恩斯坦的调查中,康菲石油公司成为最大的运营商,埃克森美孚位居第二,EOG 资源位居第三。

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Bernstein: Wells with IPs of 1,000 boe/d the ‘New Norm’

The share of 1,000 boe/d producers in the overall population of wells drilled in 2024 rose to 46% year-over-year; 2025 could be the year a majority of wells hit the “thousand club” threshold, Bernstein reports.


Bernstein, a research joint venture with Societe Generale Group, reports that the number of wells with IPs of more than 1,000 boe/d—the “thousand club” continues to rise every year—and 2025 may be the year such wells make up the majority of big producers.

“The share of thousand club wells in the overall population rose again this year to 46% of all wells drilled as fewer wells are drilled versus 2023 with similar number of thousand club wells,” Bernstein’s Bob Brackett wrote in an April 11 report. That’s consistent with technical and operational improvements and discouragement of "rank exploration,” he said.

This year, Bernstein speculates, could be the start of “thousand club” wells making up the majority.

“This is a true technological revolution—from 5% at the ‘start of shale’ to >50% in around a decade,” Brackett wrote.

The best states for such wells—Texas, New Mexico, North Dakota and Pennsylvania—correspond with the related basins’ reservoirs: the Permian and Eagle Ford Shale; Appalachian; and the Williston’s Bakken.

[top states for thousand club wells.jpg (source on slide)]
In 2024, Texas, New Mexico and North Dakota hosted the majority of the 'thousand club' wells. (Source: Enverus, Bernstein)

However, the hunt for new resource plays “continues to be exceedingly difficult,” Brackett wrote.

Some good wells from Oklahoma’s Marietta and Ardmore basins performed well but far less were drilled outside of core producing basins.

“Mid-con and Arkoma wells in the thousand club also rose slightly to support gas demand,” the report said.

A few top companies dominate the “thousand club wells,” with about 75% of 1,000 boe/d oil wells drilled by publicly traded E&Ps.

ConocoPhillips emerged as the top operator in Bernstein’s survey, with Exxon Mobil second and EOG Resources third.

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