埃克森美孚对先锋自然资源的收购将对几乎所有在二叠纪盆地拥有股份的中游公司产生影响，但分析师对于谁是赢家、谁是输家，甚至对整个存储和运输行业的结果存在分歧。

问题是埃克森美孚将继续在该地区增加多少产量，以及增长是否足以超过中游服务可能的整合。

在埃克森美孚和先锋之间，埃克森美孚在二叠纪盆地表现出了更大的侵略性，目标是全年产量增长 10%，这可能表明中游公司未来需要处理更多的产量。

CRBE 投资管理公司的投资组合经理 Hinds Howard 表示，“由于相对于每家公司自己的计划而言，发展速度略有加快，此次交易对该地区的中游运营商产生了积极的总体影响。”

然而，随着埃克森美孚采取行动消除裁员，一些生产设施以及支持它们的管道可能将不再需要。

East Daley Analytics (EDA) 在对该交易的分析中指出，两家生产商的共同努力表明，某个地区的运营钻机数量将会下降。EDA 分析师 Ajay Bakshani 在一份研究报告中表示，“DA 对近期上游交易的审查发现，一旦公司合并，买家和卖家的钻机数量就减少了近 30%。”

先锋公司拥有Targa Resources西德克萨斯系统27.2% 的股份，并将大部分二叠纪天然气输送给该公司。

埃克森美孚主要向 Targa 和Energy Transfer输送天然气，将其在该地区的收集和处理系统带到桌面上，其中包括德克萨斯州 Wink 的一个终端，并运营着 650 英里的 Wink-to Webster 管道，该管道拥有 6 条管道。其他公司。

据 EDA 称，9 月份，埃克森美孚和先锋公司在特拉华州和米德兰盆地总共拥有 38 个钻井平台。据 EDA 称，Targa 在这段时间内维修的钻机数量最多，平均为 11 台。West Texas Gas Midstream和Enlink Midstream在四个钻井平台上排名第二。埃克森美孚还利用其子公司XTO Energy为特拉华州的四个钻井平台提供服务。

最容易受到整合的公司是那些在先锋公司和埃克森公司的土地面积重叠的地方持有股份的公司。巴克沙尼表示，Targa 和 Energy Transfer 这两家公司从埃克森美孚在该地区不断增加的产量中获益最多，但它们也面临着最大的风险。

然而，EDA 也承认，合并后的公司管理费用会减少，并且可以利用多余的资金来开发那些原本被认为太边缘而无法开发的领域。

富国银行分析师报告称，此次合并总体上“对中游有利，因为（埃克森美孚）打算加速二叠纪产量增长。”Targa and Plains 在该地区运营着 5,500 英里的管道网络，将是“ “最大的赢家”，而能源传输和企业产品合作伙伴也将看到更多业务。

积极的整体前景源于埃克森美孚计划将其总产量从 2023 年的 1.3 MMboe/d 增加到 2027 年的 2 MMboe/d，复合年增长率为 11.4%，而各公司单独计划的复合年增长率约为 5%，根据富国银行对该交易的“初步了解”。  

其他正在扩大其在二叠纪盆地和墨西哥湾沿岸码头网络的中游公司预计将从该交易中获得更多流量，特别是因为埃克森美孚与该行业大多数主要参与者都建立了合资企业。

金德摩根正在扩建二叠纪公路管道 (PHP) 系统，该系统是其与埃克森美孚和Kinetik Holdings共同拥有的。KMI 首席执行官 Kim Dang 表示，在公司第三季度财报电话会议上，PHP 的运营已“初步完成”，预计将于 12 月投入使用。金德摩根将运营该管道，使其天然气产能增加约 550 MMcf/d。

Exxon Mobil’s acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources will have repercussions on nearly every midstream company with a stake in the Permian Basin, but analysts disagree on who stands to win, lose and even the outcome for the storage and transport sector as a whole.

The question is how much Exxon Mobil will continue to increase production in the region, and whether the growth will be enough to outweigh possible consolidations of midstream services.

Between Exxon and Pioneer, Exxon showed more aggression in the Permian Basin, targeting 10% production growth over the year, which could indicate more volumes for midstream companies to handle in the future.

“The transaction has positive general implications for those midstream operators in the region, driven by a modest acceleration of development versus what each company was planning on their own,” said Hinds Howard, a portfolio manager at CRBE Investment Management.

However, as Exxon moves to eliminate any redundancies, it’s likely some producing facilities, and the pipelines supporting them, will no longer be needed.

Two producers combining efforts indicate that the number of operating rigs in an area will fall, East Daley Analytics (EDA) noted in an analysis of the deal. “EDA’s review of recent upstream deals finds buyers and sellers have dropped rigs by nearly 30 percent once companies combine,” EDA analyst Ajay Bakshani said in a research note.

Pioneer owns 27.2% of Targa Resources’ West Texas system and sends most of its Permian gas to the company.

Exxon primarily sends gas to both Targa and Energy Transfer, bringing to the table its gathering and processing system in the region, including a terminal in Wink, Texas, and operates the 650-mile Wink-to-Webster pipeline, which it owns with six other companies.

According to EDA, Exxon and Pioneer had a combined 38 rigs in the Delaware and Midland basins in September. Targa serviced the most rigs in the time frame, averaging 11, according to EDA. West Texas Gas Midstream and Enlink Midstream were second at four rigs. Exxon also used its subsidiary XTO Energy to service four rigs in the Delaware.

The companies most vulnerable to consolidation are those with stakes where Pioneer’s and Exxon’s acreage overlap. Targa and Energy Transfer, companies that have benefitted the most from Exxon’s rising production in the area, are also facing the most risk, Bakshani said.

However, EDA also acknowledged that a combined company would have less overhead and could use the extra money to develop areas that have otherwise been seen as too marginal to develop.

Wells Fargo analysts reported that the merger would be an overall “positive for midstream as (Exxon Mobil) intends to accelerate Permian production growth.” Targa and Plains, which operates a network of 5,500 pipeline miles in the region, would be the “main winners” while Energy Transfer and Enterprise Products Partners would also see more business.

The positive overall outlook follows from Exxon Mobil’s plans to grow its overall production from 1.3 MMboe/d in 2023 to 2 MMboe/d by 2027, an 11.4% CAGR — compared to about 5% CAGR that the companies had planned individually, according to Wells Fargo’s “early read” of the deal.  

Other midstream companies, which are expanding their networks in the Permian and terminals on the Gulf Coast, are expecting a greater amount of traffic from the deal, especially since behemoth Exxon has joint ventures with most of the industry’s major players.

Kinder Morgan is expanding the Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP) system, which it jointly owns with Exxon Mobil and Kinetik Holdings. KMI CEO Kim Dang said operations on the PHP are “nearly complete” during the company’s third-quarter earnings call and should be in-service by December. Kinder Morgan will operate the pipeline, which increases its natural gas capacity by about 550 MMcf/d.