53% 的受访者反映了这种担忧，其中只有 5% 的人预计价格会超过 100 美元。

四分之一 (24%) 的受访者预计 2023 年石油需求将达到峰值，而在印度央行 2022 年石油调查中，这一比例接近 50%，因为需求弹性和持续消费前景似乎正在动摇。最重要的是，令人震惊的是，尽管存在一些备受瞩目的争端和紧张局势，但仍有高达 92% 的受访者认为，目前市场对油价的地缘政治风险溢价低于每桶 5 美元。

彭博资讯 (Bloomberg Intelligence) 能源高级行业分析师萨利赫·伊尔马兹(Salih Yilmaz)表示，“红海动荡和以色列与哈马斯冲突对价格的影响可以说有限，因为石油流动并未受到任何重大干扰。” OPEC+拥有大量闲置产能。然而，中东紧张局势和地缘政治风险溢价可能正慢慢开始更多地影响油价。过去几个月，布伦特原油价格测试每桶 85 美元，疲弱的经济前景和黯淡的需求前景压倒了这些因素。”

然而，调查发现，对于未来两年油价的主要推动因素存在不同意见。约 27% 的受访者表示，这将是 OPEC+ 政策，而另外 27% 的受访者表示，这将是中国的需求故事。约 22% 的人认为这将是非 OPEC+ 供应增长，另有 14% 的人认为这将是美联储的政策和利率前景。

Yilmaz表示，“根据我们的调查结果，地缘政治发展一直是过去几个月原油价格的主要推动因素之一，尽管只有10%的受访者认为这将是未来两年油价的最大推动因素。”

俄罗斯和其他产油国加入欧佩克，形成了一个更大的集团，可以监测和管理更多的产量。该集团的敏捷性帮助其有效应对市场变动。由于监督委员会更密切地监督产量，OPEC+ 也可以说更有能力管理供需平衡。”

51% 的受访者表示，预计 2024 年全球平均需求量将在 102-1.03 亿桶/日 (mmbpd) 之间（2023 年为 101.8 mmbpd），而只有 18% 的受访者认为这一数字高于 103 mmbpd。

耶尔马兹表示，“去年全球需求增长乏力，原因是中国失业率上升和房地产行业动荡，前景疲软。即便如此，在航空燃油消耗进一步恢复的帮助下，预计今年的需求仍将再创新高——约占大流行前总量的 8%。”

This apprehension reflects 53% of respondents to the survey, with only 5% expecting prices to go beyond US$100.

A quarter (24%) of the respondents is looking at 2023 to mark peak oil demand - compared with almost 50% in BI’s 2022 oil survey - as demand resilience and the outlook for continued consumption seemingly falters. To top that, a staggering 92% of the respondents believe that there is a less than a US$5-a-barrel geopolitical risk premium attached to oil prices by the market currently, despite several high-profile disputes and tensions.

Salih Yilmaz, senior industry analyst - energy at Bloomberg Intelligence, said, “The turmoil in the Red Sea and the Israel-Hamas conflict has arguably had a limited effect on prices, given there hasn't been any substantial disruption to oil flows, and OPEC+ has a meaningful amount of spare capacity. However, the Middle East tensions and the geopolitical risk premium may be slowly starting to become more baked into oil prices. That's after they were outweighed by weak economic prospects and a bleak demand picture in the past few months, as Brent oil price tests US$85 a barrel.”

The survey, however, observed a difference of opinion regarding what will primarily drive oil prices in the next two years. Around 27% of the respondents said it will be OPEC+ policy, while another 27% said it'll be the China demand story. Some 22% believe it will be the non-OPEC+ supply growth, and another 14% think it'll be the Fed policy and interest rate outlook.

Yilmaz said, “According to our findings, geopolitical developments have been one of the key drivers of crude in the past few months although only 10% of the respondents think this will be the biggest driver of oil prices over the next two years.

“The addition to OPEC of Russia and other oil-producing states has created a larger bloc, enabling more output to be monitored and managed. The group's agility has helped it become effective in responding to market moves. With a monitoring committee overseeing output more closely, OPEC+ is also arguably better positioned to manage the supply-demand balance.”

Global demand is forecast to be between 102-103 mn barrels a day (mmbpd) on average in 2024 (versus 101.8 mmbpd in 2023), according to 51% of respondents, while only 18% see it above 103 mmbpd.

Yilmaz said, “Global demand growth was underwhelming last year, driven by a softening outlook in China amid rising unemployment and turmoil in its property sector. Even so, demand is still expected to reach another record this year, helped by further recovery in jet-fuel consumption - about 8% of the pre-pandemic total.”