根据 Wood Mackenzie 的最新预测，2022 年至 2030 年间，全球深水石油和天然气产量预计将增长 60%。

“巴西、圭亚那、苏里南和纳米比亚的产量正在增长，”伍德麦肯兹上游研究总监马塞洛·德阿西斯告诉哈特能源公司。“只有少数公司拥有如此巨大的开发资源和知识，也只有少数国家拥有适当的储备和良好的生产力的综合条件来证明其合理性。”

据咨询公司 WoodMac 称，深水是上游石油和天然气增长最快的领域。

WoodMac 预计，到年底，深水产量将达到 1040 万桶油当量/天，高于 1990 年的 30 万桶油当量/天。到 2030 年，这一数字预计将达到 1700 万桶油当量/天。

“深水的一个重要方面是，由于油井的高生产率，与页岩或油砂甚至传统的海上相比，排放足迹更小。”Wood Mackenzie 的浓拟arcelo de Assis

巴西是领先的深水生产国，产能约占全球的 30%，并将继续增长。圭亚那是最重要的新进入者，未来五年内的产量将达到 100 万桶油当量/天。

通常情况下，随着石油和天然气行业的大幅增长，许多人预计相对于其他石油和天然气行业的排放足迹会增加，但德阿西斯表示，这里的情况并非如此。

“深水的一个重要方面是，由于油井的高生产率，与页岩或油砂甚至传统的海上相比，排放足迹更小，”他说。“作为石油加工的一部分，气体泄漏更少，二氧化碳排放更少。”

即使该行业取得了重大增长，但它仍然处于少数公司的控制之下。WoodMac 指出，八家公司占深水产量的 65% 和剩余项目价值的 67%。

 德阿西斯在 11 月 29 日的新闻稿中指出，尽管有所增长，“在可预见的未来，深水行业的未来仍然掌握在各大石油公司和巴西国家石油公司 (Petrobras) 的手中”。

排名前 25 的深水资产中，有 22 个由七大石油公司和巴西石油公司运营。巴西国家石油公司的深水投资组合规模是其第二大同行壳牌公司的两倍。

“这些项目需要大量投资才能实现。因此，只有少数公司可以做到这一点，”德阿西斯告诉哈特能源公司。“但是这里的盈利能力也很高，因为回报相当高。因此，他们也从这些投资中获利。有大量的自由现金流，尤其是在我们所看到的高价格环境中。”

虽然不断增长的活动水平对相关组织来说是个好兆头，但它们确实带来了一些财务问题。钻探费率正在上升，一些合同的价格从 20% 上升到高达 35%。2023年，预计价格将上涨10%。

价格上涨可能会导致一些项目被推迟。壳牌运营的 Gato do Mato 项目已被推迟 12 至 24 个月。

供应链限制也是该行业的一个担忧。

“我们有几个瓶颈，导致供应链出现问题。它正在影响整个世界，”德阿西斯说。“大多数 FPSO 都建在亚洲。所以，目前所有造船厂都面临着瓶颈。可以移动它们的地方并不多。由于规模和专业化、低成本，您无法复制这一点，也无法将订单转移到世界其他地区的造船厂。”

Global deepwater oil and gas production is expected to increase by 60% between 2022 and 2030, according to new projections by Wood Mackenzie.

“We are seeing growth in production in Brazil, Guyana, potentially Suriname and Namibia,” Marcelo de Assis, director of upstream research for Wood Mackenzie, told Hart Energy. “Only a few companies have resources and knowledge for developments this huge and only a few countries have the combined conditions of the right reserves and well productivity to justify it.”

Deepwater is the fastest-growing area of upstream oil and gas, according to the consultancy firm known as WoodMac.

At year-end, WoodMac expects deepwater production to hit 10.4 million boe/d, up from 300,000 boe/d in 1990. By 2030, that figure is forecast to reach 17 million boe/d.

“One important aspect of deepwater is that due to the high productivity of the wells, the emission footprint is smaller compared to shale or oil sands or even to conventional offshore.”—Marcelo de Assis, Wood Mackenzie

Brazil, which is the leading deepwater producer, accounts for around 30% of global capacity and will continue to grow. Guyana, the most significant new entrant, will be producing 1 million boe/d within the next five years.

Normally with major growth in the oil and gas industry, many would expect the emissions footprint to increase, relative to other oil and gas sectors, but de Assis said that isn’t the case here.

“One important aspect of deepwater is that due to the high productivity of the wells, the emission footprint is smaller compared to shale or oil sands or even to conventional offshore,” he said. “There’s less gas leakage, less CO₂ emissions as part of the oil processing.”

Even with major growth in this sector, it remains under the control of a small number of companies. WoodMac notes eight companies account for 65% of deepwater production and 67% of the remaining project value.

 Despite the growth, “the future of the deepwater sector remains in the hands of the majors and Brazil’s Petrobras for the foreseeable future,” de Assis noted in a press release on Nov. 29.

The seven majors and Petrobras operate 22 of the top 25 deepwater assets. Petrobras’ deepwater portfolio is twice the size of its next biggest peer, Shell.

“These projects demand a lot of investment to make it viable. So, only a few companies can do this,” de Assis told Hart Energy. “But then also the profitability here, as the returns are quite higher. So, they are also profiting from these investments. There’s a lot of free cash flow, especially in a high-price environment like we are seeing.”

While the growing activity levels bode well for the organizations involved, they do present some financial issues. Drill rates are on the rise with prices going from 20% to as high as 35% in some contracts. In 2023, there is expected to be a price increase of 10%.

Price increases will likely result in some projects being delayed. Gato do Mato, a Shell-operated project, has already been delayed 12-24 months.

Supply chain constraints are also a concern in the sector.

“We have several bottlenecks that create issues in the supply chain. It’s affecting the entire world,” de Assis said. “Most of the FPSOs are built in Asia. So, all the shipyards currently are facing bottlenecks. There’s not a lot of places that you can move them. Due to the size and the specialization, low costs, you cannot replicate this or you cannot transfer orders to shipyards in other areas of the world.”