当乐观情绪推动勘探时，钻井者为了寻找下一个储量达十亿桶的油田，可能会烧掉数百万美元的资金，最终却只发现一个边际油田。
这种乐观情绪——即认为某个特定前景一定会成功——会损害公司的投资组合。另一方面，对油藏深度的不确定性也是影响结果的另一个因素。
避免对某个项目的潜力过度自信和乐观是有方法的，引入公正的外部声音有助于抑制过于乐观的资源估算。数据可以用来客观地评估某个项目的潜力，并降低储层位置的不确定性。
巴西石油公司(Petrobras)的地质顾问Luciano Costa在休斯顿举行的 2025 年 SEG/AAPG 国际应用地球科学与能源会议 (IMAGE)上发表讲话时表示，钻探前的勘探和生产预测中乐观和过度自信的偏见会影响公司的盈利。
乐观是指平均结果低于平均预测值，而过度自信是指实际结果系统性地超出预测范围。80% 的置信区间通常用 P10-90 的范围来定义。
他说，研究表明，钻探后的结果可能比钻探前的预测结果小 10 到 100 倍。
“乐观评估者在以乐观偏差为特征的情景中产生非常高的期望值。
When optimism fuels exploration, drillers pursuing the next billion-barrel discovery could burn through millions in capital only to find a marginal field.
That optimism—believing a specific prospect is a winner—can harm a company’s portfolio. The flip side, uncertainty about a reservoir’s depth, is yet another factor that can affect outcomes.
There are ways to avoid overconfidence and optimism regarding a prospect’s potential, and calling in an impartial outside voice can help rein in overly bullish resource estimates. Data can be used to neutrally assess a prospect’s potential and to reduce uncertainty about the reservoir’s location.
Optimistic and overconfident biases in pre-drill exploration and production forecasts can affect a company’s bottom line, Luciano Costa, consultant geologist at Petrobras, said while presenting at the 2025 SEG/AAPG International Meeting for Applied Geoscience & Energy (IMAGE) in Houston.
Optimism is defined as average outcomes lower than the average forecast, while overconfidence is when actual outcomes fall systematically outside the prediction range. An 80% confidence interval is often defined by the P10–P90 range.
Research has shown post-drill outcomes can be as many as 10 to 100 times smaller than pre-drill forecasts, he said.
“Prospect evaluators generate expectations with very high values in scenarios characterized by optimistic biases.
