油价上涨带来的意外收获加上其他部门的增长，预计今年经济将增长 7.6%，这是 2011 年以来的最快增速。这种积极的前景意味着沙特经济有望首次突破 1 万亿美元 GDP 大关。时间。

ICAEW 国际董事总经理马克·比林顿 (Mark Billington) 表示，“虽然油价和产量的飙升对沙特经济做出了巨大贡献，但非石油增长的前景表明沙特雄心勃勃的多元化计划正在步入正轨。” 人们对沙特阿拉伯今年将进入万亿美元经济体俱乐部的预期表明，它在实现 1.7 万亿美元的 2030 年愿景目标方面取得了巨大进展。”

根据第三季度报告，沙特的前景受到石油活动增长 23.1% 和石油出口三位数增长的支撑。第二季度，沙特王国实现了十多年来的最高增长率，达到 12.2%。随着欧佩克联盟放宽产量限制，沙特石油产量已增加至接近 1100 万桶/日。今年的平均产量目标为 1,060 万桶/日，高于 2021 年的 910 万桶/日。

石油收入的增加也有利于非石油经济，第二季度的经济活动增长了 8.2%。8 月份最新的制造业 PMI 指数达到 57.7，表明尽管通货膨胀，但随着需求的增强，客户数量、产出和采购持续改善。销售点交易和私营部门信贷呈现两位数增长，进口也表明沙特国内经济强劲，对商品的需求持续增长。

ICAEW预计沙特阿拉伯今年非石油部门将增长5.1%，这将进一步推动国家就业率在第一季度升至89.9%的高位后进一步推动。

虽然油价将保持在有利于沙特公共财政的水平，但报告指出，今年沙特的财政盈余将达到GDP的9%，然后随着油价下跌而收窄。自2014年以来出现大量预算赤字后，沙特政府受益于沙特阿美公司在2022年第二季度创纪录的季度利润，从而带来了巨额预算盈余。然而，沙特仍坚持其2022年支出计划，并利用油价上涨带来的意外之财来补充储备并建立投资基金。

ICAEW经济顾问、牛津经济研究院中东首席经济学家兼董事总经理斯科特·利弗莫尔(Scott Livermore)表示，“沙特贸易顺差迅速增长之际，沙特正迅速从石油收入转向国内增长。尽管面临全球逆风，但通过利用石油收入意外之财建立公共投资基金，沙特王国继续吸引新的经济投资。近几个月来，沙特王储在与哈萨克斯坦、希腊、法国等国官员会晤时同意了一系列能源、军事、安全、经济和贸易协议。这些交易将有助于推动沙特非石油私营部门的进一步扩张，并提振当地劳动力市场。”

The windfall from higher oil prices combined with other sector growth should see the economy grow 7.6% this year, the fastest rate since 2011. This positive outlook means the Kingdom’s economy is on track to surpass the US$1 trillion GDP mark for the first time.

ICAEW managing director, International, Mark Billington, said, “While the surge in oil price and production has contributed greatly to Saudi’s economy, the outlook for non-oil growth indicates the Kingdom’s ambitious diversification plans are on track. Expectations that Saudi Arabia will enter the trillion-dollar economies club this year shows great progress against achieving its Vision 2030 target of US$1.7 trillion.”

According to the Q3 report, Saudi’s outlook is underpinned by a 23.1% increase in oil activities and triple-digit growth in oil exports. This saw the Kingdom post its highest growth in over a decade in Q2 at 12.2%. Saudi oil production has risen close to 11mn bpd as the OPEC alliance eased production limits. It is on target to average 10.6mn bpd this year, up from 9.1mn bpd in 2021.

Higher oil income is also benefitting the non-oil economy, which recorded an 8.2% growth in activities in Q2. The latest manufacturing PMI index reached 57.7 in August, demonstrating a consistent improvement in customer numbers, output, and purchasing as demand strengthens despite inflation. Point-of-sale transactions and private sector credit are showing double-digit expansion, and imports also indicate strength in the Kingdom’s domestic economy that continues to demand goods.

ICAEW sees Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector growing 5.1% this year, which will propel the national employment rate even further after it rose to a high of 89.9% in Q1.

While oil prices will remain at levels supportive of Saudi’s public finances, the report indicates the Kingdom’s fiscal surplus will peak this year at 9% of GDP, before narrowing as oil prices ease. After numerous budget deficits since 2014, the Saudi Government benefitted from the record quarterly profits by Saudi Aramco in Q2 2022, which contributed to a large budget surplus. However, Saudi has stuck with its 2022 spending plan and used the windfall from higher oil prices to replenish reserves and build out the investment fund.

ICAEW economic advisor and chief economist and managing director at Oxford Economics Middle East, Scott Livermore, said, “Saudi’s burgeoning trade surplus comes at a time when it is rapidly diversifying away from oil revenues towards domestic growth. By using the oil revenue windfall to build out the Public Investment Fund, the Kingdom continues to attract new investment into the economy, despite global headwinds. In recent months the Saudi Crown Prince has agreed to a string of energy, military, security, economic and trade deals during meetings with officials from Kazakhstan, Greece, France and others. These deals will help drive further expansion of the Kingdom’s non-oil private sector and boost the local labour market.”