以下是 Rystad Energy 北美石油和天然气副总裁 Matthew Bernstein 对石油市场的最新消息：

对于上市公司来说，企业现实情况是，如果油价维持在 60 美元/桶左右，那么原本就温和的增长也可能面临风险。

Rystad 估计，许多美国石油企业新的“全部”盈亏平衡成本目前已超过 62 美元，其中包括更高的最低收益率、股息支付和债务偿还成本。

由于美国本土 48 个州除二叠纪盆地以外地区的石油产量不太可能增长，如果油价保持低迷，那么美国最丰产的石油盆地的产量下降将减缓 2025 年的石油产量增长率。

当油价低于这一水平时，美国石油生产商过去几年采取的商业模式变得更难以维持。

这意味着，为了维护利润率，需要牺牲近期活动水平、投资者支出或库存保存的某种组合。

而不同的企业对上述因素的敏感度不同，活动和生产将受到最大的威胁。”

虽然钢铁关税对2025年油井成本的影响可能相对有限，但政策的冲击创造了一个不确定的环境，管理团队发现很难在其中开展工作。

今年美国本土 48 个州的石油产量几乎全部来自二叠纪盆地。

尽管二叠纪盆地的盈亏平衡是最具商业性的，但勘探与生产公司承诺提供高额股息，这使得拥有利润较低的油田的运营商在二叠纪盆地的增长方面面临风险。

雷斯塔能源认为，如果油价长期徘徊在 60 美元左右，那么二叠纪盆地（特别是特拉华盆地）的中型上市公司将面临特别大的风险。

这是因为，这些运营商面临着第一年产量大幅下滑、油井成本高企以及巨额资本回报要求等问题，同时，其运营环境也被大型公司占据，占据了大部分商业库存。

在线阅读文章：https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/drilling-and-production/08042025/rystad-energy-significant-risk-to-us-operators-following-tariff-announcements/

Here is Rystad Energy’s oil market update from Matthew Bernstein, Vice President, North American Oil and Gas:

“The corporate reality for public players means that already modest growth could be at risk if prices remain near US$60/bbl.

Rystad estimates that the new ‘all-in’ breakeven cost for many US oil players is now above US$62, which includes higher hurdle rates, dividend payments and debt service costs.

With Lower-48 production growth already unlikely outside the Permian, a downshift in the country’s most prolific oil basin would decelerate the rate of production growth in 2025, should prices remain subdued.

The business model embraced by US oil producers over the past several years becomes far more difficult to maintain with prices below this level.

This means that some combination of near-term activity levels, investor payouts or inventory preservation will need to be sacrificed in order to defend margins.

While different companies have different sensitivity to the above factors, activity and production will be threatened the most.”

While the impact on 2025 well costs from steel tariffs may be relatively limited, the policy whiplash created an environment of uncertainty that management teams found difficult to operate in.

Nearly all US Lower 48 oil growth this year is pegged to come from the Permian basin.

While Permian break-evens are the most commercial, E&Ps have promised high dividends, putting the Permian’s growth at risk for operators with less lucrative acreage.

Rystad Energy believes that mid-cap public players in the Permian, specifically the Delaware basin, are especially at risk in a prolonged period of oil prices in the low US$60s.

This is due to the fact that these operators here are faced with steep first-year production declines, high well costs and hefty capital return requirements, while also operating in an environment where large players have consolidated much of the most commercial inventory.

Read the article online at: https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/drilling-and-production/08042025/rystad-energy-significant-risk-to-us-operators-following-tariff-announcements/