尽管美国钻探活动年均减少 4.6%，但美国原油产量在 2023 年攀升至 12.93 MMbopd 的历史新高，与 2022 年平均 11.88 MMbopd 相比增长了 8.8%。美国运营商完成了三个主要油页岩区的大量 DUC 积压工作。2023 年伊始，WTI 价格为 78.12 美元/桶，随后全年稳步攀升，原因是乌克兰战争导致俄罗斯供应受限、中东紧张局势以及 OPEC+ 减产。WTI 原油价格于 2023 年 9 月触及年度高点 89.43 美元/桶，随后于 12 月回落至 71.90 美元/桶。 

原油和凝析油 

如前所述，2023 年美国石油产量有所增加，其中新墨西哥州产量显着增长 16%，达到平均 1.82 MMbopd（+251,700 bopd），北达科他州增长 12%，达到 1.19 MMbopd（+129,600 bopd），德克萨斯州增长 8.6%，达到5.86 MMbopd（+464,000 bopd）和路易斯安那州（包括联邦水域），随着 GOM 的新活动开始上线，该指数跃升 8.4% 至 1.62 MMbopd（+126,200 bopd）。负相关，即钻探活动减少但原油产量增加，是由于美国页岩油作业效率提高以及公司在北达科他州、新墨西哥州和德克萨斯州的大量 DUC 库存中完成了油井。在巴肯地区，运营商完成了 208 口封存井（-39%），而 Eagle Ford 油田则减少了 156 口封存井眼（-31%），两者均同比减少。在二叠纪盆地作业的作业者将暂时废弃的钻孔数量减少了 22%，完成了 239 口井。 

西部各州。尽管科罗拉多州采取了多项绿色举措，但 2023 年原油产量仍跃升 5.2%，增至 454,300 桶/日，而怀俄明州则增长 6.7%，达到 265,700 桶/日，比 2022 年报告的产量增加 16,600 桶/日。该政策于 2015 年首次启动，继续对该州的产量产生负面影响，该州的产量在 2023 年降至 315,600 桶/日，继 2022 年下降 7.3% 后下降了 7.9%。犹他州产量增加 21.4%，将该州产量推至 153,400 桶/日。比 2022 年平均产量高出 27,000 桶/日。阿拉斯加的产量在 2023 年下降 2.8%，降至 425,500 桶/日，而 2022 年平均产量为 437,500 桶/日。   

在中部大陆，俄克拉荷马州的产量增长了 3.8%，多家运营商在该州的 SCOOP 和 STACK 油田完成了高流量油井。这些高度商业化的生产商将该州的产量从 2022 年的 415,100 桶/日增至 430,800 桶/日。尽管几乎没有页岩油活动，但堪萨斯州的运营商仍设法将 2023 年原油产量维持在 75,300 桶/日，产量减少了 3.1%。堪萨斯州的钻井量和进尺量应分别增加 18% 和 16%，其中 90% 的新井（1,200 口）针对石油。在比邻国生产更多液体的俄亥俄州，与前两年相比，2023 年向尤蒂卡页岩勘探公司发放的新钻探许可证数量大幅增加。活动的增加推动该州产量继 2022 年增长 22%（60,200 桶/日）之后，在 2023 年大幅增长 39.9%，达到 84,200 桶/日，使七叶树州成为阿巴拉契亚地区最大的石油生产国，产量比西弗吉尼亚州高 60% （52,700 桶/日）。 

天然气  

由于美国页岩气田的套管头气体过多，2023 年亨利中心现货价格平均仅为 2.54 美元/MMBtu，比 2022 年（6.42 美元/MMBtu）下降 60%。即使对欧洲的液化天然气出口强劲，也无助于提振低迷的大宗商品价格。价格在 1 月份达到峰值 3.27 美元/MMBtu，然后在 5 月份暴跌至 2.15 美元/MMBtu，然后在 12 月份回升至 2.52 美元/MMBtu。EIA预测2024年和2025年美国基准亨利中心现货价格将保持在3.00美元/MMBtu以下。创纪录的天然气产量和储存库存意味着天然气价格不到2022年相对较高的年平均价格的一半。EIA预测HH 2024 年现货价格平均为 2.70 美元/MMBtu。该机构预计，随着液化天然气出口增加，2025 年 HH 价格将攀升至 2.90 美元/MMBtu。 

天然气产量/储存 EIA 预测，2024 年美国干天然气产量将增长 1% 至 2%，即 1.5 Bcfd，2025 年增长 1.3 Bcfd，低于 2023 年 4.0 Bcfd。增长放缓反映出天然气产量下降与二叠纪盆地的石油产量有关。2024 年，美国天然气产量将达到 105 Bcfd，2025 年将达到 106 Bcfd，这两项都将创历史新高。EIA 估计，到 2024 年，美国的天然气储存量将比前五年平均水平增加 14%。尽管预计今年需求增长将超过供应增长 0.7 Bcfd，但库存仍将保持在足够高的水平，足以限制价格的大幅上行压力。EIA预计美国液化天然气总出口量将从2023年的11.8 Bcfd增加到2024年的5%至12.4 Bcfd。 

Despite a 4.6% reduction in U.S. drilling activity on an average yearly basis, U.S. crude production climbed to an all-time high of 12.93 MMbopd in 2023, an 8.8% increase compared to the 11.88 MMbopd average of 2022. The increased output was augmented by U.S. operators completing a large backlog of DUCs in three major oil shale plays. WTI started 2023 at $78.12/bbl, then climbed steadily throughout the year, due to restricted Russian supply caused by the war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and OPEC+ production cuts. WTI crude prices hit a yearly high in September 2023 at $89.43/bbl, before falling back down to $71.90/bbl in December. 

CRUDE AND CONDENSATE 

As noted, U.S. oil production increased during 2023, with noticeable gains in New Mexico, up 16% to average 1.82 MMbopd (+251,700 bopd), North Dakota, up 12% to 1.19 MMbopd (+129,600 bopd), Texas up 8.6% to 5.86 MMbopd (+464,000 bopd) and Louisiana (including federal waters), which jumped 8.4% to 1.62 MMbopd (+126,200 bopd) as renewed activity in the GOM started to come on-line. The inverse correlation, i.e. a reduction in drilling activity but higher crude output, is due to improved efficiencies in U.S. shale operations and companies completing wells in their extensive DUC inventory in North Dakota, New Mexico and Texas. In the Bakken region, operators completed 208 mothballed wells (-39%), while the Eagle Ford play saw a reduction of 156 archived wellbores (-31%), both on a y-o-y basis. Operators working the Permian basin reduced the number of temporarily abandoned boreholes by 22%, completing 239 wells. 

Western states. Despite Colorado’s multiple green initiatives, crude output jumped 5.2% in 2023, increasing to 454,300 bopd, while Wyoming posted a 6.7% gain, up to 265,700 bopd, 16,600 bopd more than reported in 2022. In California, waning drilling activity, which first started in 2015, continues to negatively impact the state’s production, which dropped to 315,600 bopd in 2023, a decline of 7.9% after a 7.3% drop in 2022. A 21.4% increase in Utah pushed that state up to 153,400 bopd, 27,000 bopd more than averaged in 2022. Production in Alaska declined 2.8% in 2023, down to 425,500 bopd, after averaging 437,500 bopd in 2022.   

In the Mid-continent, production in Oklahoma was up 3.8%, with several operators completing high-flow oil wells in the state’s SCOOP and STACK plays. These highly commercial producers pushed the state’s output to 430,800 bopd, up from 415,100 bopd in 2022. Despite virtually no shale activity, operators working in Kansas managed to maintain crude production at 75,300 bopd in 2023, a 3.1% reduction in output. Drilling and footage in Kansas should be up 18% and 16%, respectively, with 90% of the new wells (1,200) targeting oil. In Ohio, which produces more liquids than its neighbors, the number of new drilling permits issued to companies exploring the Utica shale increased substantially in 2023, compared to the previous two years. The increased activity drove production in the state up a whopping 39.9% in 2023 to 84,200 bopd after a 22% gain in 2022 (60,200 bopd), making the Buckeye state the largest oil producer in the Appalachia region, 60% more output than West Virginia (52,700 bopd). 

NATURAL GAS  

Henry Hub spot prices averaged just $2.54/MMBtu in 2023, 60% less than in 2022 ($6.42/MMbtu) due to excessive casinghead gas from U.S. shale fields. Even robust LNG exports to Europe could not help lift depressed commodity prices. Prices peaked at $3.27/MMbtu in January before plummeting to $2.15/MMBtu in May before recovering to $2.52/MMbtu in December. EIA predicts the annual average U.S. benchmark Henry Hub spot price will remain under $3.00/MMBtu in 2024 and 2025. Record natural gas production and storage inventories mean that natural gas prices are less than half the relatively high annual average price in 2022. EIA forecasts HH spot prices to average $2.70/MMBtu in 2024. The agency expects HH price to climb to $2.90/MMBtu in 2025, as LNG exports increase. 

Gas production/storage The EIA predicts U.S. dry natural gas production will grow between 1% and 2% or 1.5 Bcfd in 2024 and 1.3 Bcfd in 2025, down from growth of 4.0 Bcfd in 2023. The slowing growth reflects a drop in natural gas production associated with oil output in the Permian basin. U.S. natural gas production should reach 105 Bcfd in 2024 and 106 Bcfd in 2025—both would be record highs. EIA estimates that the U.S. began 2024 with 14% more natural gas in storage than the previous five-year average. Although demand growth is forecast to outpace supply growth by 0.7 Bcfd this year, inventories will remain high enough to limit significant upward pressure on prices. EIA expects U.S. LNG gross exports to rise 5% in 2024 to 12.4 Bcfd, up from 11.8 Bcfd in 2023.